متوسط مكرر القطاع 27 مره, ممكن توصل إلى 135 ريال للحاق بباقي القطاع..بالتأكيد المكرر عالي, لكن حسب النمو مكرر 2016 بحدود 16 مره حسب توصية CI Capital اليوم الصباح..وميزتها عن باقي القطاع هي عدد الأسهم الحره القليله البالغة 7 مليون سهم..
Saudi Co for Hardware (SACO)SCH AB / 4008.SE Overweight TP SAR162Our 12-month target price of SAR162 implies 45% upside. SACO, KSA’s latest retailer to go public, offers an attractive growth play as Saudi’s only full-fledged hardware and home improvement retailer. It trades on a 2016e P/E of 15.1x, 20% below peers, despite offering a 27% 2014-16e EPS CAGR vs. peers’ 11% and boasting a more contained cost base (2014 RoE 34%) with limited risk of higher Saudisation quotas and rent inflation.Set to grow 2x the market. The company should garner market share by proliferating its “one-stop shop” model into underserved areas. Over the longer-term, our assumption that SACO’s growth will converge to the market’s current rate of 9% is conservative considering c80% are small players, which is conducive for market consolidation.Higher vendor rebate growth could add 20% to valuation. Our base case assumes an annual increase of 10bps in the rebate rate vs. a yearly 70bps average since 2013. If the rebate rate more closely tracks the historical trend, it would lower the need for additional working capital by 300bps, increase our 2015-20e earnings estimates by 11%, and in turn boost our target price by 20% to SAR194.Risks capable of lowering our rating are few. They include lower-than-expected sales per sqm growth and higher-than-forecasted labour and rent. Each 1%-lower sales per sqm growth results in a 9% drop in our 12M TP. If we assume SACO’s like-for-like (LFL) growth drops to match the market rate of 6% (vs. its historical average 13%), our target price would fall to market price.
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