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Wood Mackenzie: Global Oversupply Of Gas Could Dissipate As Early As Winter 2012
Europe’s cushion of gas supply reduced
to less than 10bcm in 2011 due to recent events
EDINBURGH/HOUSTON, 22nd June 2011 – Wood Mackenzie’s latest Global Gas research reveals that recent events will accelerate the demise of the global over-supply by 2-3 years, leading to the potential for spot prices higher than contract prices in both Asia and Europe.
“The global oversupply of gas, which was previously forecast to end in 2015, will now likely end in 2013 and possibly as early as 2012. This oversupply is most manifest in Europe, which has become the market of last resort for LNG supply,” Mr Noel Tomnay, Wood Mackenzie’s Head of Global Gas explains.
Wood Mackenzie adds that the end to oversupply in Europe will coincide with a increasingly tight Asian market. By which time Europe will be competing with Asia for LNG in a tight global market, something not seen since 2008. Tomnay says “Consequently there is the potential for European spot prices to be equivalent to or even rise above contract prices within the next two years.”
At the start of 2011, Wood Mackenzie estimated the European oversupply - the cushion of gas available at prices lower than contract prices – to be over 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) through 2011. However, its latest analysis shows that recent events have reduced this gas cushion, and consequently reduced the extent of oversupply.
Mr Tomnay explains the impact of these recent events on the global gas market; “Political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa - notably the Libyan civil war and the corresponding Greenstream pipe capacity outage - has removed 8bcm of contracted gas.
“Furthermore, the Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear backlash post-Fukushima have resulted in coal and nuclear generation outages in Japan, thereby increasing Japanese LNG demand and subsequently reducing the availability of LNG to Europe by over 12bcm in 2011. It has also resulted in nuclear retirals in Germany, further increasing gas demand.”
Wood Mackenzie surmises that in aggregate, these factors have eroded the cushion of gas supply in Europe to less than 10 bcm in 2011, by 2013 onwards this cushion will have eroded completely.
Tomnay warns that other factors could exacerbate this situation; “Unplanned outages have disrupted LNG supply availability in the past, including from Nigeria and also Algeria in the last 2 years. The potential for future unplanned LNG outages to disrupt the smooth running of global LNG capacity cannot be ruled out, whether they are technical challenges or the result of recent unrest, as that presently seen in Yemen.
“Should such outages coincide with a cold winter, such an event combined with ongoing Libyan gas supply disruption could remove Europe's gas cushion entirely by as early as winter of 2012.”
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