شكراً اخي مستر سهم ولاشك ان هذا حدث هام وسوف يكون له دور كبير في دعم السوق على مدى بعيد وليس وقتي ولفتره بسيطه وان هذا التقييم لايأتي الا من دراسه عميقه للاقتصاد السعودي من قبل ستاندر اند بورز وسوف يكون له دور كبير في جذب الاستثمار الخارجي للسعودية قريباً ان شاء الله وسوف يسهل على السعوديه مفاوضاتها فيما يخص الاستثمارات وبالذات الغاز ، وان ذلك يدل على ان السياسه الاقتصاديه في السعوديه تتجه اتجاهها الصحيح وسوف تحقق نجاحها ان شاء الله فيما يتعلق في كل الجوانب .وبالتأكيد فان الاصلاحات الاقتصادية والسياسية التي اتخذتها السعودية في الفتره الاخيره كان لها دور كبير في رفع تصنيفها ويدل ذلك على اهمية ماقامت به السعوديه من اصلاحات .
وان ستاندر اند بورز ومودي هما الجهتان التي تقيم اقتصادات الدول وكذلك الشركات وهما مؤثران والاولى تأثيرها اقوى .
وهذا التقرير الاساسي من موقع ستاندر اند بورز وفيه الكثير من الايجابيات لم تذكرها وكالة الانباء السعودية واس .
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Assigned 'A+/A-1' Local Currency; 'A/A-1' Foreign Currency Ratings
Analyst:
Ala'a Al-Yousuf, D.Phil. , London (44) 20-7847-7104; Konrad Reuss, London (44) 20-7847-7102
Publication date: 14-Jul-03, 05:00:52 EST
Reprinted from RatingsDirect
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) July 14, 2003--Standard & Poor's Ratings
Services said today it assigned its 'A+' long-term local currency and its
'A' long-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings to the Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia. At the same time, Standard & Poor's assigned its 'A-1'
short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to the
Kingdom. The outlook on the long-term ratings is stable.
The ratings on the Kingdom are supported by:
-- Macroeconomic stability. Despite several external shocks, the Kingdom
has maintained stability in its highly open economy, in particular, a
stable exchange rate, low inflation, and a sound banking system. The Saudi
Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) has earned a good reputation as a
banking supervisor with standards in line with international best
practice;
-- Substantial external liquidity. The government has built a substantial
cushion of foreign assets. Saudi Arabia's external liquidity indicators
compare favorably with those of its peers. The government has no external
debt, nor present plans to incur any, and the nonfinancial public sector
has low external debt equivalent to 17% of current account receipts; and
-- The government's sizeable domestic investments and favorable debt
composition. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) has a sizeable portfolio of
holdings in about 24 domestic listed companies. More than 80% of
government debt is medium and long-term and held by the pension funds, the
PIF and other government institutions. Standard & Poor's estimates that
the government is a net creditor, and expects this position to remain
broadly unchanged until 2005.
The higher local currency credit ratings balance the government's ability
to raise revenues and access the domestic capital markets against
geopolitical risks that could impair its ability to service both local and
foreign currency debt.
The ratings are constrained by:
-- Limited fiscal flexibility. Oil revenues, which account for about 80%
of total revenues, are largely capped by the Kingdom's quota in OPEC's
production and this is unlikely to increase significantly in the medium
term. Budgetary expenditure control could be strengthened further to
prevent overruns, but the room for sequestration in times of stress is
limited unless further privatizations reduce the size of the government's
payroll;
-- Insufficient private sector economic growth. Over the next few years,
growth in the nonoil private sector is expected to average 5%. This is
higher than the expected indigenous population growth rate of 3.5%, but in
line with the expected Saudi labor force growth rate. The government's
strategy for dealing with this issue rests on continued macroeconomic
stability, ambitious and broad-based economic reforms, enhancing education
and training, and attracting foreign direct investment;
-- A slowly developing sociopolitical system. Policy-making is slowed down
by the need to preserve consensus among diverse stakeholders. This
approach has maintained political stability, but policy-making has been
slow and timid in the face of short-term economic shocks and long-term
demographic challenges. The political system is developing, however, which
could potentially expedite decision-making.
"The stable outlook balances the prospects for the success of the
government's ambitious and broad-based reform effort against the
significant challenges posed by meeting the needs of a rapidly growing
population and building political and economic institutions," said
Standard & Poor's credit analyst Ala'a Al-Yousuf, director for the Middle
East and Africa. The government's creditworthiness could improve over the
medium term if the Natural Gas Initiative is launched soon and is
successful, nonoil private sector economic growth accelerates, the
government's nonoil revenue base expands, and the socioeconomic pressures
of youth unemployment decline. Conversely, the government's
creditworthiness could come under downward pressure if its debt burden
increases significantly, external liquidity is impaired, or political risk
increases.
Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of
RatingsDirect, Standard & Poor's Web-based credit analysis system, at
www.ratingsdirect.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be
found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at
www.standardandpoors.com;
under Credit Ratings in the left navigation bar, select Credit Ratings
Actions. Alternatively, call one of Standard & Poor's Ratings Desks:
London (44) 20-7847-7400; Paris (33) 1-4420-6705; Frankfurt (49)
69-33-999-223; or Stockholm (46) 8-440-5916. Members of the media may
contact the Press Office Hotline on (44) 20-7826-3605 or via
media_europe@standardandpoors.com.
ANALYST E-MAIL ADDRESSES
ala'a_al-yousuf@standardandpoors.com
konrad_reuss@standardandpoors.com
SovereignLondon@standardandpoors.com
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