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The dollar's decline should, over time, reduce America's trade deficit somewhat. US exports have climbed about 15 percent in the last year. But the effect of dollar devaluation on trade will be limited, reckons Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland's School of Business. That's because 40 percent of the deficit is the result of the US trade imbalance with China. And China controls the value of the yuan against the dollar and some other currencies to protect its exports and job growth. Further, another 40 percent of the US deficit arises from its import of oil – and most economists don't expect a major drop in world oil prices. Much of the remaining 20 percent of the US deficit stems from its import of cars from Canada, Mexico, and (to a limited extent) Europe.
•Europeans are uncomfortable with the dollar's weakness, partly because it has pushed up their trade deficit with China. A euro bought 8.17 yuan in October 2002; today it buys 10.58 – up 30.5 percent. So when the finance ministers of the Group of Seven (Japan, Canada, Britain, Germany, France, Italy, and the US) meet Oct. 20 in Washington, the Europeans will urge for more pressure on China to let its currency appreciate.
Also, the International Monetary Fund last year launched a "multilateral consultation" of the US, China, the euro area, Japan, and Saudi Arabia to seek a solution to the "global imbalance" that includes the US trade deficit and the big trade surpluses of China, Japan, and some other Asian nations. "They will wring their hands with even more vigor now, and little else," comments McMillion.
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