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مشاهدة النسخة كاملة : عرض تجارة العملات الاولي الياباني



zohair4u
19-08-2002, Mon 6:50 AM
Japanese Forex Trading Preview by Korman Tam

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The dollar is steady at 117.48 after dipping to two and a half week lows versus the yen last week amid a change in bias by the Federal Reserve and weaker US economic data. There was talk of repatriation flows from US treasury payments being the driving force behind the sharp gains posted by the yen. The steep appreciation in the yen prompted MoF's Kuroda to remind the markets that government officials were keeping a close watch on the forex markets and the yen's recent rise was unfavorable. It was also rumored that the Bank of Japan called certain dealing rooms to remind traders it was there and watching FX moves. Fear of intervention by BoJ officials pushed the currency pair off its lows of 116.30, resulting in rangebound trade above the 117-handle for the remainder of the week. According to the CFTC IMM report, speculators increased their net long positions in dollar/yen contracts considerably for the week ending August 13th to 3,664 contracts rebounding sharply from 706 dollar/yen contracts a week earlier.

Over the weekend, Japan's FSA announced that it will ask all financial institutions in September to introduce interest-free deposits for settlement purposes amid fears the end of a blanket deposit guarantee could hit struggling banks. The FSA believes that if banks with relatively high credit ratings do not introduce such deposits, people will shift their money, thereby destabilizing the already frail financial system. The government had aimed to remove its full guarantee by next April in what many believe to be the first step towards reform in Japan's banking sector. These latest moves are yet another sign that Prime Minister Koizumi's reform program continues to be marred by the old guard in the LDP. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that a survey of 498 listed firms had overseas operations account for 27.6% of their total operating profit in the 2001-2002 business year ending in March, up 6.3% from a year earlier. This rising dependence by Japanese firms on overseas earnings does not bode well given the increasing evidence of a faltering US recovery. Although operating profit for these firms fell in regions around the globe, the most dramatic fall was seen in Japan. Operating profit from the US fell 15% from a year earlier, while operating profit fell a staggering 40% in Japan due to deflationary pressures in the economy. Last week a report showed that a record 1,814 firms had gone bankrupt in July, up from 15.8% from a year earlier and bankruptcy dept had surged 61.1% for the same month from a year earlier.

The Nikkei ended the Friday session down slightly, losing 7.44-pts to close at 9,788.13. Data from the MoF showed that foreign investors were net sellers of Japanese stocks for the 8th consecutive week. Many feel the Nikkei is in for a small rebound this week after the CEO deadline on August 14th turned out to be a non-event for US stocks. Yet gains are likely to be capped due to selling of cross-shareholdings by banks, which are likely to get rid of 5 trillion yen of these holdings in the fiscal year to March 2003. The selling is expected to pick up in the coming month since banks are eager to rid themselves of these holdings before the end of the first half.

USDJPY faces resistance at 117.70, the 68% retracement of the move up from 115.50 to 121.33, followed by 118 and 118.40. Minor support is seen at 117.30, followed by 117, 116.60, 116.20 and this year's low at 115.50.

According to the CFTC IMM report, speculators continue to scale back their net long euro/dollar contracts to 19,782 contracts for the week ending August 13th from 20,022 contracts a week earlier. This marks the 4th consecutive week of declines and a fresh 4-month low in the speculative net long contracts. Over the weekend German Chancellor Gerhard Shroeder said aid discussed by central European leaders for the flood stricken regions would not endanger deficit limits set down in the Eurozone's stability pact. Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schuessel said the flood aid his government had pledged for affected regions should not push his country's budget deficit over the 3% of GDP Eurozone members are bound by. The euro broke back above its 50-day moving average last week and remains steady at 98.41. Interim resistance is seen at 98.50, followed by 98.90 and key resistance at 99.10, the 50% retracement of the move from 1.0201 (July 18) to 0.9621 (August 6). Support seen at 98.20, followed by 97.90, its 50-day moving average, 97.55 and 97.20.

US economic highlights for this week consist of July leading indicators index and international trade data. From the Eurozone, July HICP, industrial production, German Q2 GDP, June balance of payments, and French July CPI will be announced. Markets will also scutinize U.K. retail sales, the CBI industrial trends survey, U.K. Q2 GDP, and the Japanese tertiary sector survey