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مشاهدة النسخة كاملة : اليورو/دولار قد يحقق مكاسب الى 0.9920 - 0.9940 من حرارة الصعود



Ramsey
14-08-2002, Wed 1:51 PM
عن بنك فيلادلفيا

EUR/USD may extend gains to .9920 - .9940 out of momentum alone

FX Outlook: (Aug 14, 2002 06:25 CET) - Major currencies got a significant boost after the FOMC announcement that the US economy's recovery from recession is less assured than it was just a few months ago. The rise in major currencies was expected -- what was not was the relative strength shown by the major pairs after the announcement and corresponding weakness in US equities.

EUR/USD extended gains beyond .9825 and has been to as high as .9885 minutes ago. Out of momentum alone, the currency may extend gains to .9920 - .9940. This will bring the currency into short-term overbought condition and may trigger a subsequent pullback to at least the .9780 area. We will keep the bearish scenario for a while, as we still believe the large correction scenario from the 1.0214 top to be incomplete and expect further further declines perhaps to .9570 - .9525.

USD/CHF also went lower than our proposed probe of the 1.4900 support and has gone to as low as 1.4790. But no changes to the near-term view yet of a rally to 1.5200 - 1.5225 area or even to as high as 1.5400. GBP/USD extended gains beyond 1.5350 target and has reached 1.5415 so far, but expect the currency to resume the downtrend thereafter. No change in the view just yet -- further declines to 1.5150 follows thereafter for a retest of the July 5 low.

The USD/JPY did fall further to 118.00; the only trouble is that it kept going and has been to as low as 117.00 so far. The spillover is so significant that we have to modify the bullish scenario somewhat. We still expect a rally to at least the 120.25 area, but the 122.00 target has to be abandoned after a downside break of the 117.80 +swing point+, which confirms the onset of a new downcycle for the currency pair.

USD/CAD fell according to expectations and has been to 1.5620; it should extend further to the - 1.5600 support later in the week. The currency will likely extend losses to 1.5550 - 1.5525. AUD/USD did nevr make it to .5430 on the upside. No change in view -- the downtrend has likely resumed and general support may appear first at .5300, then only at .5200 - .5180 further out. NZD/USD has indeed extended gains to .4650, but no .4675 trip. The bearish view may have been confirmed with a sell-off after the FOMC meeting. The next downturn may extend initially to .4520, the have further losses to .4420 - .4400 next. Further out, expect .4250.