المساعد الشخصي الرقمي

مشاهدة النسخة كاملة : ملخص سوق نيويورك



Ramsey
06-08-2002, Tue 11:53 PM
عن داوجونز نيوزواير

By Grainne McCarthy
OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Despite a slew of signals that the U.S. economic recovery may be faltering, the dollar jumped on the coattails of rallying U.S. equities Tuesday, reaching its highest point against the yen and euro in over six weeks and also climbing higher against other key counterparts.

The dollar's gains have gotten investors wondering whether the currency's long-term fortunes may have turned. For now, analysts - many of whom have been predicting a slow, secular decline in the dollar - continue to call the rally a temporary correction, led largely by a flow of funds into the U.S. government bond market. But the volatile trading conditions - both in currency and other asset markets - could prompt a more sustained rebound for the dollar, particularly as it has now breached resistance levels against many of its key counterparts.

"If the technical side really tells us that something is changing, you have to rethink your base scenario," said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Citibank in New York.

For many foreign exchange banks, the base scenario - even a month ago - was that investors would continue to reward higher-yielding currencies and move funds out of the dollar as the global recovery gained pace. Back then, the fact that the Federal Reserve wasn't expected to hike interest rates until well into the second half of the year - or early next year - was viewed as a hefty weight on the dollar.

But now, in the wake of epic losses in July on global equity markets, a notable minority are talking more about when the Fed might ease interest rates. And, once again, that's being viewed as a dollar positive. "We're back to the story of 2001 when rate cuts helped the dollar," said Shahab Jalinoos, a currency strategist at UBS Warburg in London.

At the same time, sluggish economic data out of the U.S. are prompting some fund managers to reevaluate their other base scenario: that of a robust global recovery, which according to some market watchers, is helping to attract flows back to what may be the safer haven of the U.S., both to the stock market and particularly into Treasury securities.

Given expectations in some quarters of a Fed interest rate cut, "the lightbulb went off that Treasurys were undervalued," said Paul Podolsky, chief foreign exchange strategist at Fleet Global Markets in Boston. "Money is pouring in to the Treasury market which, for now, has more than plugged the U.S. current account hole."

In this sense, a mixture of investment flows and fundamental considerations are helping to support the dollar and once again push the euro back from parity's door. But analysts are still reluctant to pronounce that the dollar has hit bottom. On the contrary, many believe that while the currency may be able to step appreciably higher during August - typically a month of relatively thin liquidity with many market participants on vacation - the dollar is still vulnerable to many of the same issues that have dogged it so far this year.

"We're jumping the gun a little bit," said Jalinoos. "The Fed hasn't really indicated that it's looking to cut yet." Jalinoos - and others - reckon much of the dollar's gains have been driven more by speculative buying, after the euro failed to capitalize last week on weaker-than-expected U.S. data, including a mere 1.1% rise in gross domestic product for the second quarter.

On top of that, some signs of life returning to the long-dormant merger and acquisition market - the latest sign coming from Switzerland's Nestle SA's decision to buy Chef America Inc. for $2.6 billion - have also rekindled interest in the dollar. Some analysts also suggest that the growing possibility of a U.S.-led strike on Iraq is helping to restore some of the safe haven luster to the dollar.

What's more, notes Tim Mazanec, senior foreign exchange strategist at Investors Bank & Trust in Boston, the dollar rally is getting a helping hand from the very fact that it had weakened so quickly against the euro last month, enabling the common currency to finally breach parity on July 15. That is helping it to strengthen now just as quickly. "It always overshoots," he said.

The combination of these factors certainly raises the possibility of some capitulation by investors who had been positioned for further declines in the dollar - some technical analysts are even predicting a fall by the euro to as low as $0.9200. "But that's well within the norms you would expect," said Jalinoos. "You could have that happen and remain a long-term dollar bear."

Late Tuesday in New York, the dollar was trading at Y120.91, steeply up from Y119.65 late Monday in New York. The euro was trading at $0.9660, down 1.6% from $0.9810 late Monday in New York.

Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was at CHF1.5086, sharply up from CHF1.4811 late Monday, while sterling was at $1.5382, steeply down from $1.5611.

Some hints that the dollar's march may not be irrepressible came from the so-called commodity currencies, some of which did rebound sharply on Tuesday from their battering in the prior session. "They were due for a correction after yesterday," so "it might be too early to say" if the partial rebound of the Australian and Canadian dollars is indicative of any sustained potential for them to move higher, said Robert Lynch, foreign exchange strategist with BNP Paribas in New York.

In late trading, the U.S. dollar was trading at C$1.5843, compared with C$1.5858 late Friday. Canadian markets were closed Monday for the Simcoe Day holiday. The Australian dollar was trading at $0.5310.

In Latin American markets, sentiment in the Brazilian real showed some improvement, after center-left opposition candidate Ciro Gomes, who has been viewed as a potential opponent of a new International Monetary Fund accord for Brazil, said he wouldn't oppose a deal with the multilateral lender.

"More of the leading politicians favoring some kind of discussion with the IMF is a good step," said Meg Browne, a currency strategist with HSBC in New York, greeting Gomes' remarks with cautious optimism. Absent more concrete information about further IMF assistance to the country, the real is likely to trade in a range between around BRL3.00 and BRL3.32 to the dollar, Browne said. Late Monday in New York the dollar was at BRL3.100, down slightly from BRL3.15 in late dealings Monday.