المساعد الشخصي الرقمي

مشاهدة النسخة كاملة : توصيات تداول العملات على المدى القصير 06-08-2002



Ramsey
06-08-2002, Tue 7:26 PM
توصيات تداول العملات على المدى القصير 06-08-2002
عن بنك فيلادلفيا

Euro/US Dollar - Aug 6
Tuesday, August 06, 2002
EUR/USD - (0.9646) 17:50 CET - the currency broke through the .9728 support, opening a can of worms. The currency has been to as low as .9633, and wave structure suggests more declines to come. Expect a fall to .9570/50 area, and therafter perhaps to .9500 before this enormous correction is over. This particular phase is shaping out to be a retracement of the entire bull market from the February .8566 trough. In terms of degree, it is perhaps the a counterpart of the Sept 01 - Jan 02 sideways consolidation.

Recommendations:

Sell at .9700. Initial stoploss: .9775. Trading objective: .9500.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen - Aug 6
Tuesday, August 06, 2002
USD/JPY - (121.12) 18:09 CET - USD/JPY will, after all, reach the 121.50 "sweet spot" and should even make a go at the 122.00 high point of the target band, which we reinstate after breach of 120.00 +swing level+. Allow for an overshoot to 123.00 - 123.50.

Recommendations:

Buy at 120.50. Initial stoploss: 119.75. Trading objective: 123.00.

US Dollar/Swiss Franc - Aug 6
Tuesday, August 06, 2002
USD/CHF - (1.5128) 18:11 CET - the currency may extend gains to just under 1.5200, pullback somewhat then rally again to 1.5350 - 1.5375. With the stockmarket's newly found legs, expect flight to quality trades to be reversed.

Recommendations:

Buy at 1.5065. Initial stoploss: 1.4910. Trading objective: 1.5350.

British Pound/US Dollar - Aug 6
Tuesday, August 06, 2002
GBP/USD - (1.5383) 18:18 CET - Just to provide a reality check, we take a look at GBP/USD implications, and it does look like a 1.5270 target developing, and thereafter to 1.5150 retest. The corrective phase retraces the uptrend from January 02 1.4646 low. Since the US Dollar - stockmarket dichotomy may persist for a while, we will now have to track the FX meanderings independent of what the stockmarkets do.

Recommendations:

Long (1.5650) stopped at 1.5520. Sell at 1.5450. Initial stoploss: 1.5535. Trading objective: 1.5150.


Australian Dollar/US Dollar - Aug 6
Tuesday, August 06, 2002
AUD/USD - (.5291) 06:04 CET - AUD/USD fell sharply in line with expectations (and stock market performance) and has been to as low as .5265. Expect the Aussie to fall further to .5225 area later in the week. NZD/USD also fell to as low as .4535, but should extend losses to .4520/10 later in the week.

Recommendations:

Hold short NZD/USD (.4665). Move stoploss from .4620. Trading objective: .4515.

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar - Aug 6
Tuesday, August 06, 2002
USD/CAD - (1.5948) 06:07 CET - USD/CAD found resistance at just below the 1.5977 top , but the risk of further 1.6000 rise remains. Support however may come at 1.5750 thereafter, as 1.6000 may prove to be rock-solid.

Recommendations: Stand by.


Euro/Japanese Yen - Aug 6
Tuesday, August 06, 2002
EUR/JPY - (117.21) 06:09 CET - no change in levles and in view -- support firms up at 116.90; the uptrend has probably resumed. Trend remains to the upside, looking for a probe of the 119.30 resistance, then on to 122.00 and perhaps 124.00 further out.

Recommendations:

Hold longs (117.20). Initial stoploss at 116.35. Trading objective: 122.00.


Euro/British Pound - Aug 6
Tuesday, August 06, 2002
EUR/GBP - (.6280) 06:12 CET - no change in view -- still a sideways consolidation above .6260. We keep the upwards bias for a little longer. We need to see a move above .6320 to kickstart the upmove going. The next natural upside target is the .6450 resistance, and we reinstate .6600 targets if warranted later.

Recommendations: Hold longs (.6266). Move stoploss from .6250 to .6230. Trading objective: .6450.


Euro/Swiss Franc - Aug 6
Tuesday, August 06, 2002
EUR/CHF - (1.4532) 06:15 CET - resistance appeared at 1.4555, and cross pulled back somewhat, but it is still not a given that the cross will continue trading lower. But once the cross goes below 1.4500, then the sell-off should resume continue and take out 1.4445 low, and then on to 1.4300.

Recommendations: Shorts (1.4525) stopped at 1.4545. Stand by.

British Pound/Japanese Yen - Aug 6
Tuesday, August 06, 2002
GBP/JPY - (1.8669) 06:20 CET - cross trades sideway, and no change in view -- the cross probably bottomed at 1.8552, and should head higher again. The positive outlook remains unchanged. The uptrend should accelerate shortly with 1.9000 - 1.9200 as target band.

Recommendations: Hold long (1.8611). Move stoploss from 1.8425 to 1.8525. Trading objective: 1.9200