Ramsey
05-08-2002, Mon 10:10 AM
توصيات تداول العملات على المدى القصير
عن بنك فيلادلفيا :
Euro/US Dollar - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
EUR/USD - (0.9828) 07:12 CET - EUR/USD is in another kind of fish kettle, and so any boost to .9920 - .9940 thereafter may be followed by further losses to .9800 - .9780. We consider this meandering as part of a +test of the low+ concept. If the majors survive this downside test, then the upcycle should accelerate towards the highs last month.
Recommendations:
Hold longs (.9765). Move stoploss from .9670 to .9765. Trading objective: 1.0350.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
USD/JPY - (119.39) 07:17 CET - USD/JPY should continue to recover from 118.65 and may bounce back to 119.50/70, but no change in the scenario -- we're not reinstating the 121.50 - 122.00 scenario just yet, or probably not at all, unless the currency blows away 120.00. Therefore any uptick to 119.50/70 may be a tentative Sell, with 120.55 as stoploss, looking for a subsequent test of 118.00 crucial support.
Recommendations:
Hold longs (119.74) Stoploss at 118.50 or 119.50 - OCO.
US Dollar/Swiss Franc - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
USD/CHF - (1.4770) 07:26 CET - USD/CHF may also continue to float towards the 1.4800 area, a little higher than expected, but this may be followed by a subsequent retest of the 1.4600 support and swing level, which should also give way by mid-week. The bear market should resume thereafter. and revisit 1.4350 baseline, and go on to 1.4250 or lower.
Recommendations:
Hold shorts (1.4750). Move stoploss from 1.4810 to 1.4840. Trading objective: 1.4250.
British Pound/US Dollar - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
GBP/USD - (1.5686) 07:30 CET - GBP/USD may trade sideways to lower early on but expect a move to 1.5770/80 sometime in New York session, as the US equity markets may be hit hard again by ISM services data. However, the boost on the currencies may not last very long, and so expect a correction back to 1.5660 - 1.5650 thereafter.
We still have high hopes that GBP/USD will eventually break through and go on to retest the 1.5685 +swing level+, break of which removes minor resistance to a new rally to the 1.5860 high. The next upcycle aims at 1.6000.
Recommendations:
Buy again at 1.5650. Initial stoploss: 1.5520. Trading objective: 1.6000.
Australian Dollar/US Dollar - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
AUD/USD - (.5391) 07:32 CET - AUD/USD recovery may have ended (never made it to .5430) and is now set to fall again. The .5340 trough will be subjected to another probe later in the week, and will probably give way. Expect .5200 on the downside. NZD/USD never made it to .4680, and is likely set for a test and subsequent breach of the .4608 trough. Focus on .4500 targets downside further out.
Recommendations:
Hold short (.4665). Initial stoploss: .4720. Trading objective: .4525.
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
USD/CAD - (1.5819) 07:36 CET - The commodity currencies are still pulled by erratic cross-currents, but weakness may be the common theme going forward. USD/CAD has another role-reversal and now fucntions as just another semi-greenback pair. Support however may come at 1.5750 and 1.6000 still beckons on the upside.
Recommendations: Stand by.
Euro/Japanese Yen - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
EUR/JPY - (117.33) 07:37 CET - support actually appeared at 116.90, but the uotrend has probably resumed. Trend remains to the upside, looking for a probe of the 119.30 resistance, then on to 122.00 and perhaps 124.00 further out.
Recommendations:
Hold longs (117.20). Initial stoploss at 116.35. Trading objective: 122.00.
Euro/British Pound - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
EUR/GBP - (.6272) 07:39 CET - the downside correction has so far fell to as low as .6265. We keep the upwards bias for a little longer. We need to see a move above .6320 to kickstart the upmove going. The next natural upside target is the .6450 resistance, and we reinstate .6600 targets if warranted later.
Recommendations: Hold longs (.6266). Move stoploss from .6260 to .6250. Trading objective: .6450.
Euro/Swiss Franc - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
EUR/CHF - (1.4526) 07:43 CET - the bounce actually made it to 1.4535 and may yet extend to 1.4545. The sell-off should resume thereafter, take out 1.4445 low, and then on to 1.4300.
Recommendations: Hold shorts (1.4525). Move stoploss from 1.4560 to 1.4540. Trading objective: 1.4300.
British Pound/Japanese Yen - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
GBP/JPY - (1.8703) 07:46 CET - no change in view -- the cross probably bottomed at 1.8552, and is now heading higher again. The positive outlook remains unchanged. The uptrend should accelerate shortly with 1.9000 - 1.9200 as target band.
Recommendations: Hold long (1.8611). Move stoploss from 1.8425 to 1.8525. Trading objective: 1.9200
عن بنك فيلادلفيا :
Euro/US Dollar - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
EUR/USD - (0.9828) 07:12 CET - EUR/USD is in another kind of fish kettle, and so any boost to .9920 - .9940 thereafter may be followed by further losses to .9800 - .9780. We consider this meandering as part of a +test of the low+ concept. If the majors survive this downside test, then the upcycle should accelerate towards the highs last month.
Recommendations:
Hold longs (.9765). Move stoploss from .9670 to .9765. Trading objective: 1.0350.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
USD/JPY - (119.39) 07:17 CET - USD/JPY should continue to recover from 118.65 and may bounce back to 119.50/70, but no change in the scenario -- we're not reinstating the 121.50 - 122.00 scenario just yet, or probably not at all, unless the currency blows away 120.00. Therefore any uptick to 119.50/70 may be a tentative Sell, with 120.55 as stoploss, looking for a subsequent test of 118.00 crucial support.
Recommendations:
Hold longs (119.74) Stoploss at 118.50 or 119.50 - OCO.
US Dollar/Swiss Franc - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
USD/CHF - (1.4770) 07:26 CET - USD/CHF may also continue to float towards the 1.4800 area, a little higher than expected, but this may be followed by a subsequent retest of the 1.4600 support and swing level, which should also give way by mid-week. The bear market should resume thereafter. and revisit 1.4350 baseline, and go on to 1.4250 or lower.
Recommendations:
Hold shorts (1.4750). Move stoploss from 1.4810 to 1.4840. Trading objective: 1.4250.
British Pound/US Dollar - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
GBP/USD - (1.5686) 07:30 CET - GBP/USD may trade sideways to lower early on but expect a move to 1.5770/80 sometime in New York session, as the US equity markets may be hit hard again by ISM services data. However, the boost on the currencies may not last very long, and so expect a correction back to 1.5660 - 1.5650 thereafter.
We still have high hopes that GBP/USD will eventually break through and go on to retest the 1.5685 +swing level+, break of which removes minor resistance to a new rally to the 1.5860 high. The next upcycle aims at 1.6000.
Recommendations:
Buy again at 1.5650. Initial stoploss: 1.5520. Trading objective: 1.6000.
Australian Dollar/US Dollar - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
AUD/USD - (.5391) 07:32 CET - AUD/USD recovery may have ended (never made it to .5430) and is now set to fall again. The .5340 trough will be subjected to another probe later in the week, and will probably give way. Expect .5200 on the downside. NZD/USD never made it to .4680, and is likely set for a test and subsequent breach of the .4608 trough. Focus on .4500 targets downside further out.
Recommendations:
Hold short (.4665). Initial stoploss: .4720. Trading objective: .4525.
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
USD/CAD - (1.5819) 07:36 CET - The commodity currencies are still pulled by erratic cross-currents, but weakness may be the common theme going forward. USD/CAD has another role-reversal and now fucntions as just another semi-greenback pair. Support however may come at 1.5750 and 1.6000 still beckons on the upside.
Recommendations: Stand by.
Euro/Japanese Yen - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
EUR/JPY - (117.33) 07:37 CET - support actually appeared at 116.90, but the uotrend has probably resumed. Trend remains to the upside, looking for a probe of the 119.30 resistance, then on to 122.00 and perhaps 124.00 further out.
Recommendations:
Hold longs (117.20). Initial stoploss at 116.35. Trading objective: 122.00.
Euro/British Pound - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
EUR/GBP - (.6272) 07:39 CET - the downside correction has so far fell to as low as .6265. We keep the upwards bias for a little longer. We need to see a move above .6320 to kickstart the upmove going. The next natural upside target is the .6450 resistance, and we reinstate .6600 targets if warranted later.
Recommendations: Hold longs (.6266). Move stoploss from .6260 to .6250. Trading objective: .6450.
Euro/Swiss Franc - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
EUR/CHF - (1.4526) 07:43 CET - the bounce actually made it to 1.4535 and may yet extend to 1.4545. The sell-off should resume thereafter, take out 1.4445 low, and then on to 1.4300.
Recommendations: Hold shorts (1.4525). Move stoploss from 1.4560 to 1.4540. Trading objective: 1.4300.
British Pound/Japanese Yen - Aug 5
Monday, August 05, 2002
GBP/JPY - (1.8703) 07:46 CET - no change in view -- the cross probably bottomed at 1.8552, and is now heading higher again. The positive outlook remains unchanged. The uptrend should accelerate shortly with 1.9000 - 1.9200 as target band.
Recommendations: Hold long (1.8611). Move stoploss from 1.8425 to 1.8525. Trading objective: 1.9200