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01-08-2002, Thu 11:55 AM
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EUROPEAN OUTLOOK: Allianz Warning Hangs Over Markets

Euro-USD 0.9785 gain 0.0014 up 0.14%
Stlg-USD 1.5642 gain 0.0005 up 0.03%
USD-Franc 1.4822 gain 0.0025 up 0.17%

LONDON (Dow Jones)--European shares look set for a lower opening, while the dollar and government bonds will be little changed ahead of rate announcements by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England around midday.

STOCKS: European shares will open lower in the wake of the weak U.S. second quarter gross domestic product data released Wednesday, weaker share markets in Asia and indications that the U.S. market will open lower later Thursday.

A profit warning from the big German insurer Allianz AG (AZ) after European markets closed Wednesday will also be putting downward pressure on European shares. Allianz said it expects to report a net loss of EUR350 million in the second quarter, dragging first-half profit down to around EUR1.6 billion.

Several big European banks will be reporting results early in the session, including Deutsche Bank (DB), BNP Paribas (F.BNP) and Barclays (BCS).

BONDS: European government bonds are expected to stay little changed ahead of the Bank of England and ECB rate decisions due around the middle of the trading session. They rallied late Wednesday on the weak U.S. economic data and should continue to be underpinned by the strong gains made by U.S. Treasurys overnight.

FOREX: Although both the ECB and BoE are expected to leave their key lending rates unchanged, the dollar is expected to stay in a tight range ahead of the announcements. Events in Brazil, and now Uruguay, will keep the market edgy, however.

Uruguay, which announced a one-day bank holiday Tuesday, is seeking to avoid the drastic step of partly freezing deposits, as neighboring Argentina did in December.