المساعد الشخصي الرقمي

مشاهدة النسخة كاملة : انخفض الدولار على اليورو والين، مصادر السوق مترددة لإقتراح استمرار الإنخفاض



Ramsey
25-07-2002, Thu 1:05 PM
عن داو جونز نيوزوايرز

الدولار ينخفض على انخفاض الأسهم الأسيوية

انخفض الدولار على اليورو والين لكن مصادر السوق لا تزال مترددة لإقتراح ان الإنخفاض سيستمر .....

JULY,25 2002 07:16 GMT

DJ Forex Focus: Dlr Dn On Asian Stks Fall, Rate Cut Outlook
By Nicholas Hastings Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The dollar has weakened again against the euro and the yen, but market sources remain reluctant to suggest that the currency will extend its losses much further just now.

"The market is nervous at the moment and just flying around," commented Lee Ferridge, currency analyst at Rabobank in London. "Views are getting changed day to day."


He said although the dollar appears to have decoupled from the U.S. stock market for the time being, on the assumption that U.S. investors are being forced to repatriate funds from overseas assets to cover losses at home, he still sees the old relationship reestablishing itself.


"Stocks are still the key," he said.


For the moment, though, the dollar has largely shrugged off the rebound in U.S. stocks that helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average gain 489 points and pushed the Nasdaq 61 points higher Wednesday.


Some sources said the dollar is taking its cue more from Japan and other Asian markets which declined despite the recovery in the U.S. This, they said, indicates that the U.S. markets won't be able to rally further when they reopen Thursday.


In Japan, the Nikkei lost 18 points on concern that upcoming results from technology companies won't live up to expectations and worries that continued stock market losses will start inflicting serious damage to the capitalization of Japan's major banks.


Another theory doing the rounds is that the dollar is being hit by expectations of another cut in U.S. interest rates. Although the U.S. Federal Reserve itself has shown little inclination towards such a move, there remain fears that the central bank will feel forced to move if U.S. stocks continue to decline at the current rate.


Unless this move was coordinated with the European Central Bank, this is likely to increase the differential between U.S. and euro-zone rates in favor of the euro.


In early European trading, the dollar has fallen back to Y116.59 from Y116.82 late Wednesday in New York. The euro advanced back over parity to as far as $1.0015 in Asian trading. But, it has since eased back to $0.9995, still staying above late New York levels at $0.9946.


Although the performance of U.S. stocks will remain the guiding influence for markets worldwide, including currencies, the release of U.S. durable goods figures for July could also provide some direction.


Current forecasts suggest that orders may have dropped off, growing only 0.5% this month, compared with a rise of 0.9% in June.


But, Ferridge said, if they come in better than forecast this could have a direct impact on stock market sentiment given the current concern that although the U.S. economy is recovering from recession company profits will remain under pressure.


"A good number could help sentiment toward the dollar," he said.


Similarly, a certain amount of attention is expected to be given to the release of Germany's Ifo index at 0800 GMT. This is widely expected to show that business sentiment has declined again, with the main index falling to 91.0 from 91.3.


It follows declines in Italian and Belgian business sentiment Wednesday with the Italian index falling to 93.9 from 94.7 and the Belgian equivalent coming in at minus 6.5% from minus 5.5%.


The trend could provide an important reminder to investors that while the decline in the U.S. stock market is bad for the U.S., it could prove even more of a problem for the rest of the world.


"It is a global issue," Ferridge said.


As European trading gets underway, the dollar is also down at CHF1.4527 from CHF1.4590 late Wednesday in New York, while the pound has risen to $1.5762 from $1.5724.