المساعد الشخصي الرقمي

مشاهدة النسخة كاملة : تكامل المحللين الفنيين العرب



Chartist
24-07-2002, Wed 2:36 PM
اعزائى الاخوة العرب سعدت جدا بوجود مثل هذا المنتدى وارجو الاستفادة منة والافادة
اولا
مجال اهتمامى هو البورصة الكويتية والبورصة المصرية وكم اندهشت لوجود هذا الكم من العالميين والعامليين بالتحليل الفنى ولا اخفى عليكم سرا فقد كنت اعتقد اعتقاد خاطئ بأن التحليل الفنى هو شيئ مجهول نسبيا للعرب
ثانيا
كما زكرت سابقا فهذه اول مشاركة لى فى المنتدى وانا لااجييد استخدامة
ثالثا وهو الاهم
اود ان أسئل الاخوة المستثمرين فى بورصة الكويت عن...
هل المءشر الحلي يعكس الحركة الفعلية للسوق وان كانت الاجابة لا فكيف اذا تجرون تحليلاتكم
وفى محاولة منى لعمل مؤشر للسوق الكويتى فهذه هى تجربتى وسوف ارسلها راجايا من الله التوفيق

وشكر.....

C:\WINDOWS\Desktop\index.png
محلل فنى عربى

Chartist
24-07-2002, Wed 3:22 PM
ارجو ان يكون اليوم هو بداية تعاون بيننا وبين جميع المحللين الفنيين العرب .
وارجو من اللة تعالى ان يكون مثمرا لنشر الوعى بالتحليل الفنى اكثر واكثر
ولقد حاولت بفتح موضوع يطلق علية تكامل المحللين الفنيين العرب لمعرفة المزيد والمزيد عن المتعامليين بالتحليل الفنى

انا محلل فنى عربى
وارجو ان اكون على قدر من التعليم الفنى فمن يجد فى نفسة الرغربة فى المشاركة يسعدنى ذلك جدا جدا
وسوف ارسل اليوم مساهمة منى فى تحليل للمؤشر المرفق وارجو التعليق
وشكرا

Chartist
24-07-2002, Wed 3:43 PM
First of all I would like to explain why stock exchange's index doesn't reflect the real market movement .so you can’t relay on its values
Illustration 1


The First reason is
The stock exchange's index takes the all listed companies (98)in consideration which is miss leading, as In the above tables you find that, in the yellow table the value of company "D" didn't change from day one to day two and the total percent of change was 60% ( 6/10)
While, when we removed the value of company "D" (non traded company Ex. (AYAAN) )from the two days in the blue table. The percentage of change has become 100 %( 6/6) instead of 60 % .
This happened though we removed a same value from the two days
This explained why the value of the stock exchange's index move up while the value of our index didn't change or moved down
The second reason
for the difference between the values of two indices is, while we assume the stock exchange's index include about 75 companies ( the traded ones) in its methodology we only use 35 companies. So, maybe the greatest company in price change that affect the yesterday’s movement in the stock exchange's index doesn't included in our index
The Third reason
Is, we take the free float for the company in consideration, which affects the on the company's Weight in the index calculation
I hope it to be clear

Conclusion
According to My index, the Kuwaiti stock market doesn't move up it just moves sideway testing its resistance, which is preventing it from moving higher
Regarding our yesterday's conversation lets go to analysis the yesterday's session.
Trading Report
Yesterday, the greatest company increased in price was "SHUAA CAPITAL" ( Not included in My index ), this company increased by 10 % through 81 transactions (3% from the total market transactions) and by value of 388,880 KD by 1.7 % from the total market value. Do you think it is reflects the real market??. The Kuwait stock exchange's index affected by this company, while My index not.
The second company increased in price was COAST&DEVELOPMENTCOMPANY" ( Not included too in My index ), this company increased by 5.74 % through 99 transactions (3.62% from the total market transactions) and by value of1297,000 KD by 3.56 % from the total market value. The Kuwait stock exchange's index affected by this company, while My index not
The third company increased in price was " 'KUWAIT(S.A.K.)" ( also Not included in My index ), this company increased by 5.5 % through 21 and by value of 99,040 KD by. The Kuwait stock exchange's index affected by this company, while My index not

My index

Indicators Analysis

C:\Documents and Settings\Ayman\Desktop\Daily Technical sample2_files\image015.gif

The above chart is a weekly chart for the My index (OCCI), this chart shows that, the index has been moving in a sideway movement for the prior 68 weeks .
As we all know, during the sideway movement( non trending markets ) it is preferable to use the leading indicators and while During the trending markets it is preferable to use the lagging indicators. So, we used the stochastic Oscillator as a sample for the leading indicators.
The stochastic Oscillator had generated two sell signals during the

sideway movement (when the fast stochastic “K” down crossed the slow one “D” in the overbought area. Also it generated a buy signals when fast stochastic “K” over crossed the slow one “D” in the oversold area). These two sell signals occurred nearly at the same level ( resistance level). Accordingly, at this level it will be hard to generate a buy signal depending on the leading indicators
The last buy signal that generated depending on the leading indicators was @ the lower band of the sideway movement. So the current recommendation depending on the leading indicator is HOLD, this recommendation will be downgraded to sell when the fast stochastic “K” down crossed the slow one “D”
Support and resistance analysis
C:\Documents and Settings\Ayman\Desktop\Daily Technical sample2_files\image011.gif
Currently the index is facing a resistance level @ (current level), as the index failed to cross over this resistance level for the prior 17 month. This indicates there is a developing of a long term double top formation, this formation will be confirmed when the index down cross the lower band of the sideway movement( appear on the chart). This violation will generate a target level around 21/1/2001support level .

Elliot Wave Analysis

C:\Documents and Settings\Ayman\Desktop\Daily Technical sample2_files\image013.gif
By applying Elliot wave analysis on the index will find that
Wave one was a bullish one, as it started from 13/12/98 to 19 /9/99. Wave two was a correction ( counter movement )to wave one as it correct about 50% retracment . Wave three was the tallest one as it ended at about 161.8 from wave one ( Extended wave ). According to alternation principle we expect wave five to be contracted and it may failed to record a new high above wave three
Wave four corrected about 38 %, which also achieve the alternation principle ( if the first correction was long , the second correction will be short) Accordingly now we expect a correction movement the maximum level to this correction is the top of wave one
The correction waves {A} {B} {C} can take several shapes , that depends on the correction type. However, if the index violated the current resistance level ( the peak of wave 3 confirmed by a heavy volume, it would move up about the width of the sideway movement
The strategy
After the previous explanation many investor ask, what should I do now ( what is the current action ) ????
The answer about this question is not that easy as it require to determine which kind of investor you are and how long of your investment( short term Or long term) and what is your current position in the market. Also it require a knowledge of many management wise
For Example

The aggressive investors
• If you are an aggressive short term investor you can buy at any intra-day down movement and sell the position next day or at the same day when it record a reasonable profit and go short at the same tome. However, you should be aware with the game rule and accept it. As the market could move suddenly sharp down movement, which will be costly for you

• If you are an aggressive long term trader you can sell short at any bullish movement during the week specially close to the upper band of the sideway movement market. The risk in this position, it could take some time before you can close your position with profits, as the market may continue move sideway for while and you maybe obligated to close to your position
• You have to but your stop loss level before starting your trading

The conservative investors
• If you are a conservative short term investor you can sell at the resistance level( the higher band ) and buy at the support level ( the lower band )
• You have to but your stop loss level before starting your trading in case of violating the lower band

• If you are a conservative long term investor you can sell all your position at the breaking below the support level( the lower band ) and buy at the crossing over level ( the higher band )
• You have to but your stop loss level before starting your trading in case of violating the lower bandC:\Documents and Settings\Ayman\Desktop\Daily Technical sample2_files\image009.gif C:\Documents and Settings\Ayman\Desktop\Daily Technical sample2_files\image015.gif C:\Documents and Settings\Ayman\Desktop\Daily Technical sample2_files\image011.gif C:\Documents and Settings\Ayman\Desktop\Daily Technical sample2_files\image013.gif

abonaser
25-07-2002, Thu 5:45 AM
السلام عليكم اخي وصبحك اللة بالخير

مالبرنامج الذي تستخدمة في التحليل الفني

والداتا من اين تجلبها هل تدخلها بشكل يدوي وهل هي علي هيئة اسكي كود ام ماذا ؟

Chartist
25-07-2002, Thu 10:58 AM
good morning abonaser
I'm glade to see your resbonse and i hope to know your comment about my analysis

about you question

i used the METASTOCK program and i devlobed a data base programe that linked with net so i cand downloade the datafrom the net then convert it to metastock file
Thank you
Chartist

abonaser
25-07-2002, Thu 4:00 PM
الشارت واضح جدا فية نقاط الدعم والمقاومة . وواضحة لكي ذي عين
وصراحة ميتا ستوك رهيب جدا انا استخدمة من فترة ..... لاأدعي اني خبير بة لكن علي الاقل اعرف كتابة الفوريملا فية وسبق ان حاولت ان ابحث عن داتا للسوق السعودي ولم اجد او بالاصح لم اجد في البحث

لكن كبف طورت قاعدة البيانات ؟ هل تقوم بتحويل الفورمات من اكسل الي ميتا ستوك فورمات عن طريق الداون لودر ؟ وكيف عملت لة لنك عن طريق النت ؟ لان هذة الفكرة رائعة جدا جدا .

Abo_Ghada
26-07-2002, Fri 1:16 PM
Salam Chartist...
I really could not understnad the way you build your own index for the Kuwaiti stock market. It is not optimal to eliminate certain stocks from your index just because they have low volume or no volume at all. If a stock didn't trade today, it doesn't mean it won't in the future. Whether you prefer equal-weighted or value-weighted index, you have to include all stocks in it. From my own experience, I usually use the value-weighted indexes.

Although I am not a technical analyst and I don't know every detail of it, but I know for sure that it is a waste of time and money for almost 90 percent of chartists. I hope your are in the 10 percent group of successful ones. I beleive in market efficiency and that any anomaly will be corrected over time. Few people can fully understand the market psychology and the emergence of new anomalies. Those people are the billionaires of the future.
Hope you are one them...

Take care

Abo_Ghada
26-07-2002, Fri 1:20 PM
there are two kind of Investors technicians and winners
:D :) :D
I am just joking... keep the hard work

Chartist
29-07-2002, Mon 12:47 PM
In the OfficeXp you can make a link between the Excle files and any web page that what i did , between a file that i made and the web site that pulish the closing data

and about the program that you ask
i keept these reccored in a access file to the piror 5 years the daily i convert this data to excel filex by a macro ,then from excel to metastock by using the downloader

Chartist
29-07-2002, Mon 2:27 PM
First of all I'm glad to find who discuss the technical mater with him
The second about what you wrote
When you are waking on a road and you see 10 accidents you can't
Say the all drivers are wrong
That because you didn't see the all drivers 10 drivers are nothing comparing to the all drivers whom passed from this road is it
About the index
We are flexible to add or remove any company according its performance so if any company shows a good performance or remove any company , that shows a poor performance
By the way you way an writing seems to be familiar
???????????Do I know you