مورغان
22-11-2001, Thu 8:33 PM
Mid Week Market Update
11/21/01
NASDAQ COMMENTARY
We mentioned over the weekend, a move back below the 1880-level would be the first indication the market may not be looking to challenge 2000 after all before the anticipated retracement period begins, while a move back below the 1850-level would certainly be evermore suggestive of a new down trend in the markets.
The Nasdaq would finally penetrate the key 1930-2000 band we've been mentioning for weeks now during Monday's session. Then came Tuesday. As the smart money held back for any follow through action into the band by emotional buyers, the market chopped around. Then, around 1:30pmET, we would see one of our sentiment hold-outs finally begin to come on board and suggest forthcoming weakness.
The market would go on to fall some 30 points into the close only being stopped by the convergence of the 10-day EMA (1870) and the 1880-level. As it stands, the market is below the key 10-day EMA with the last trade at 1860. Although we've expected the top would come from within the area of 1930-2000, which certainly looks viable from current price action, we still prefer the market to probe deeper into the key band.
Nonetheless, we remain tentatively bearish the Nasdaq, especially now that we've seen our anticipated test into the 1930-2000 band of support/resistance. We will move to an all-out bearish front if we see the market reach more deeply into the key band, or continue to suggest further weakness.
WEEKLY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE
http://www.bigtrends.com/images/1121otcmw.gif
______________________________________________
Today's Featured Free Content at BigTrends.com
Price Headley's Daily Trend Watch - today, Price
looks at the importance of "round number" key levels,
and provides key support and resistance levels for
Nasdaq, S & P, and DJIA indexes.
http://www.bigtrends.com/document.jsp?documentid=117
Visit BigTrends.com every day for Price's latest
market commentary!
________________________________________________
OEX COMMENTARY
We mentioned over the weekend, we were tentatively bearish the OEX for the anticipated retracement of the recent rally off the September 21st lows given the test to the 592.50-level last week. Although we preferred a test up to the 600-mark, we suspected the market might not be as accommodating. So far this has proved to be the case.
The market proved able to test the 595-mark, but was stopped short once this level was reached. We are now seeing the OEX trade back to the key 10-day EMA (584.35) trying to find support.
For the market we are electing to use the 580-585-level as our bull/bear pivot. A move below may be indicate we are in the retracement period, while holding the line could lead to the move to the 600-level we'd been expecting and another selling opportunity. However, the market did manage to put in a test of the 30-Week EMA, as we've illustrated, so it remains questionable whether we get an all out test of 600. Nevertheless, a spike there would be ideal, especially followed by a marked reversal.
As for today's price action, the holiday environment can provide erratic and less than indicative price swings. Therefore, we prefer awaiting Monday's trade to draw any additional conclusions.
Having said that, as we mentioned over the weekend, as long as we hold below 605, we'll maintain the current bearish posture. We are targeting a move at least to the level of 540.0 from current prices with a stop coming in at 605.0.
WEEKLY CHART OF OEX
http://www.bigtrends.com/images/1121oexmw.gif
Have a Great Trading Week Ahead
11/21/01
NASDAQ COMMENTARY
We mentioned over the weekend, a move back below the 1880-level would be the first indication the market may not be looking to challenge 2000 after all before the anticipated retracement period begins, while a move back below the 1850-level would certainly be evermore suggestive of a new down trend in the markets.
The Nasdaq would finally penetrate the key 1930-2000 band we've been mentioning for weeks now during Monday's session. Then came Tuesday. As the smart money held back for any follow through action into the band by emotional buyers, the market chopped around. Then, around 1:30pmET, we would see one of our sentiment hold-outs finally begin to come on board and suggest forthcoming weakness.
The market would go on to fall some 30 points into the close only being stopped by the convergence of the 10-day EMA (1870) and the 1880-level. As it stands, the market is below the key 10-day EMA with the last trade at 1860. Although we've expected the top would come from within the area of 1930-2000, which certainly looks viable from current price action, we still prefer the market to probe deeper into the key band.
Nonetheless, we remain tentatively bearish the Nasdaq, especially now that we've seen our anticipated test into the 1930-2000 band of support/resistance. We will move to an all-out bearish front if we see the market reach more deeply into the key band, or continue to suggest further weakness.
WEEKLY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE
http://www.bigtrends.com/images/1121otcmw.gif
______________________________________________
Today's Featured Free Content at BigTrends.com
Price Headley's Daily Trend Watch - today, Price
looks at the importance of "round number" key levels,
and provides key support and resistance levels for
Nasdaq, S & P, and DJIA indexes.
http://www.bigtrends.com/document.jsp?documentid=117
Visit BigTrends.com every day for Price's latest
market commentary!
________________________________________________
OEX COMMENTARY
We mentioned over the weekend, we were tentatively bearish the OEX for the anticipated retracement of the recent rally off the September 21st lows given the test to the 592.50-level last week. Although we preferred a test up to the 600-mark, we suspected the market might not be as accommodating. So far this has proved to be the case.
The market proved able to test the 595-mark, but was stopped short once this level was reached. We are now seeing the OEX trade back to the key 10-day EMA (584.35) trying to find support.
For the market we are electing to use the 580-585-level as our bull/bear pivot. A move below may be indicate we are in the retracement period, while holding the line could lead to the move to the 600-level we'd been expecting and another selling opportunity. However, the market did manage to put in a test of the 30-Week EMA, as we've illustrated, so it remains questionable whether we get an all out test of 600. Nevertheless, a spike there would be ideal, especially followed by a marked reversal.
As for today's price action, the holiday environment can provide erratic and less than indicative price swings. Therefore, we prefer awaiting Monday's trade to draw any additional conclusions.
Having said that, as we mentioned over the weekend, as long as we hold below 605, we'll maintain the current bearish posture. We are targeting a move at least to the level of 540.0 from current prices with a stop coming in at 605.0.
WEEKLY CHART OF OEX
http://www.bigtrends.com/images/1121oexmw.gif
Have a Great Trading Week Ahead