ابو المحاميد
23-09-2011, Fri 11:22 PM
السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته ...
من بين المقالات المتشائمة الكثيرة عن سوق الأسهم الأمريكي ...
وجدت هذا المقال المتفائل بجنون ... عن الإقتصاد الأمريكي و سوق الأسهم ... و بعض أسهمه خصوصا ...
الرجل كان يتوقع أن يصل الداو الى 20 ألف نقطة (ذكرني بمؤشرنا وتوقعات طيب الذكر) ...
:p
ويبدو أنه الآن حصر تفاؤله في عدم تأثر سوق الأسهم الأمريكي بالأزمات القائمة ...
وفي الإستثمار في بعض الأسهم التي يتوقع لها مستقبلا خياليا !!!
بصراحة ... يبدو الرجل مجنونا ... ولو أنه يكتب في موقع محترم !!!
:D :p :D
ملخص المقال:
- البنوك الأمريكية لن تتأثر بإفلاس بعض دول أوروبا ... لأن ديونها على الدول الأوروبية المهددة بالإفلاس قليلة بالنسبة برأس مالها (5%) ...
وخصوصا مع القاعدة التي تم تطبيقها في عام 2009 ... والتي تقيم الأصول بقيمتها الإسمية وليس الحالية ...
- كما أن البنوك الأمريكية لم تتأثر كثيرا لإفلاس معظم دول أمريكا اللاتينية في بداية الثمانينات ... وكانت نسبة ديونها هناك لرأس مالها عالية جدا ...
(في تلك الفترة، إشترى الوليد بن طلال في بنك سيتي جروب ... وضربت معه ولو أنها ربا) !!!
- ديون البنوك الأمركية على أوروبا لن تتغير قيمتها ... حتى لو إنخفضت قيمتها السوقية ... ولن تؤثر على "الأرباح الورقية" لتلك البنوك !!!
وهذا بسبب القاعدة التي تم تطبيقها في عام 2009 ... والتي تقيم الأصول بقيمتها الإسمية ... مهما إنخفضت القيمة السوقية للديون الأوروبية !!!
- يتوقع أن ينمو الناتج المحلي الأمريكي للربع القادم ... وذلك النمو للربع التاسع على التوالي ...
- تخفيض الوظائف لن يمنع سوق الأسهم من الإرتفاع (وهذا كان موضوع نقاش في موضوع سابق في المنتدى) ...
وهو ما يسمونه الإرتداد بدون وظائف (Jobless recovery) ...
- وأخيرا ... هبوط مبيعات المنازل الجديدة قابله إرتفاع مبيعات المنازل القديمة وبنسبة 30% ...
ما يعني أن مشكلة المنازل المصادرة بسبب العجز عن السداد يتم تصريفها ... وفي طريقها الى الحل ...
*****
أما على مستوى الشركات التي ينصح بالإستثمار فيها ...
فيعطي خمس شركات يتوقع أنها سوف تنفجر الى الأعلى ...
- شركة أبل للكمبيوتر ... ويتوقع أن يصل سعر سهمها الى 1500 دولار ...
- شركة إكسون موبيل ... ويتوقع لها نموا ضخما بسبب شرائها لشركة حفر تمتلك تقنيات حفر متقدمة ...
ما يسهل إستخراج النفط الذي كان يعتبر صعب الإستخراج ... ويرفع إنتاج النفط في أمريكا الى مستويات كبيرة ...
تجعل مكانة أمريكا في إستخراج النفط في العقد القادم تضاهي مكانة السعودية في العقد السابق !!!
:eek: :confused: :eek:
:confused: :confused:
:eek:
- شركة وولمارت ... والتي تنوي دخول مجال الرعاية الصحية ...
- شركة أمازون.كوم والتي تعمل في المبيعات عن طريق الإنترنت ...
- شركة جوجل ... والتي يرى لها مستقبلا قويا ...
*****المقال بالإنجليزية والرابط ...
- http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-worries-for-a-worrisome-market-2011-09-23
Tune out the fear and panic
Commentary: Seize great stock opportunities now
By James Altucher
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The world is ending. You heard me. Europe is going to default. The U.S. will go into a depression, the dollar will shrink to nothing, Congress and Barack Obama will continue to fight in the Coliseum while us citizens shout and roar from the stands, and stocks will go down forever. To zero maybe.
All of that rioting that is in Libya will spread like a “contagion” to here. And in 13 billion years, the perimeter of the sun will be so wide it will suck us in, a cold dark Earth, a shadow of what it once was.
WSJ's Francesco Guerrera looks at reach and depth of the global stock market selloff, and the deepening negative market sentiment.
Do I worry? Me? Mr. “Dow 20,000?” Of course I do. I get worried that people will believe the lies listed above that are spread every day. The newspapers have to report the worries. That’s a reasonable function; awareness is important. But then you have major responsibilities that most people forget: Analysis and Action. You need to look at the data and decide what is real and what is now. Then take action to make money.
Let’s look at some basic facts:
A) The top eight banks in the United States have almost $1 trillion in capital and only $54 billion in exposure to the weakest Euro zone nations. Let them all default. Doesn’t bother us.
B) In 1981-2, almost all of South America defaulted. The top eight banks then had 263% of their capital exposed to South America, based on accounting rules in place then. Guess what? We had a 20-year boom after that.
C) Is Europe a Lehman? One big difference (other than the obvious one I just mentioned: The banks in 2008 were subject to the brand new mark-to-market rule. Now they don’t have to mark to market. They can make an assumption (”Europe will pay back eventually”) and not have to mark things down as quickly. Guess when the mark to market rule was eliminated? March 2009 — the bottom of the market.
D) We’ve had eight straight quarters of GDP growth. Well, what if next quarter there is no growth? Impossible. Just the return of Japan to some degree of normalcy will guarantee growth.
E) The government is going to cut a lot of jobs. Won’t that reduce GDP? Definitely not. Look at 1945. The government eliminated 10 million (!) jobs when the soldiers returned. I don’t recall the Great Depression of 1945, do you?
F) Housing starts are down while existing home sales are up 18% year over year. You know what that means? Supply is going down while demand is going up. I look forward to housing prices going up over the next year considerably. Particularly with rents up 30% on the past three years in some parts of the country, like New York City.
G) Look at this. (http://siteanalytics.compete.com/fedex.com/)Traffic to fedex.com is my favorite leading indicator. It dipped a little at the market bottom and when Japan reduced manufacturing output by 15%. Now it’s coming back. We’ll see the result of that in this and next quarter’s GDP results. You can run the same chart on ups.com.
That, in a tiny nutshell that I can expand if you want, is the macro view. Let’s look at the micro view:
A) No matter what happens in Greece, or even in the United States, AAPL +0.53% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/AAPL?link=MW_story_quote)with 12x earnings and $80 billion in cash will release another iPhone, another iPad, another Mac, and then repeat all through next year. They are continuing to change computing and regardless of the state of the economy, the lines will be around the corner when they release the next iPad. Despite all of our worries, consumer spending is up 2% year over year. So AAPL is a buy. And I keep my $1,500 price target on it.
B) Exxon Mobil XOM -0.22% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/XOM?link=MW_story_quote)is just beginning a wonderful new phase for the United States and the world. You’ve heard of peak oil theory — the idea that the easy oil has all been drilled and we will run out. It’s a true theory. BUT, the definition of “easy” is changing because of cheaper and cheaper advances in the technology of fracking. XOM bought XTO, the leader in fracking, which can drill 3,000 feet down through solid rock, drill sideways, break up previously hard rocks, and get the oil up. Cheaper than ever. And it will only get cheaper. The U.S. is the new Saudi Arabia over the next 10 years. And XOM is dirt cheap.
C) Wal-Mart Stores WMT +0.70% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/WMT?link=MW_story_quote). Forget that WMT has been the best run company for 40 years straight. WMT is about to do for healthcare what AAPL is doing for computing. Imagine every WMT with a cheap healthcare clinic. They won’t do surgery on you there. But they will treat your colds, your flus, prescribe medicines, get your glasses, etc. Forget ObamaCare. The new cheap healthcare is WalmartCare, where it always should’ve been -- in the private sector.
D) Amazon.com AMZN -0.58% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/AMZN?link=MW_story_quote). I went to a Borders sale the other day; 90% off because of the going out of business sale. Barnes & Noble BKS +4.35% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/BKS?link=MW_story_quote) is next. I already read almost all of my books on a Kindle. And the Kindle tablet, if it has good browsing and videos, will be a viable competitor for AAPL.
E) Google GOOG +0.68% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GOOG?link=MW_story_quote). I’ve argued this one before. It’s just the best company in the world.
All of the above five stocks are priced at very low multiples over earnings. Even if the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.04% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DJIA?link=MW_story_quote)(horrors) gets cut in half, the $80 billion in cash that AAPL has provides a great cushion, for instance. I always look at risk versus reward.
Two more macro items:
Zynga and Facebook are going to herald in the return of the IPO. And when they have IPOs they will have currency to acquire other companies, which will fuel VC investments, which will create jobs, etc.
You don’t need full employment for the stock market to go up. They are uncorrelated (as exemplified by consumer spending being at an all time high)
Awareness. Analysis. Action.
Don’t even listen to me. Do your own research. You won’t be as scared as the market suggests. Let the market be afraid while you be smart.
James Altucher is managing director of Formula Capital and the author of six books. He’s written for the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Forbes and many other publications. He’s built and sold two businesses. He does not own individual stocks mentioned in this column.
*****
من بين المقالات المتشائمة الكثيرة عن سوق الأسهم الأمريكي ...
وجدت هذا المقال المتفائل بجنون ... عن الإقتصاد الأمريكي و سوق الأسهم ... و بعض أسهمه خصوصا ...
الرجل كان يتوقع أن يصل الداو الى 20 ألف نقطة (ذكرني بمؤشرنا وتوقعات طيب الذكر) ...
:p
ويبدو أنه الآن حصر تفاؤله في عدم تأثر سوق الأسهم الأمريكي بالأزمات القائمة ...
وفي الإستثمار في بعض الأسهم التي يتوقع لها مستقبلا خياليا !!!
بصراحة ... يبدو الرجل مجنونا ... ولو أنه يكتب في موقع محترم !!!
:D :p :D
ملخص المقال:
- البنوك الأمريكية لن تتأثر بإفلاس بعض دول أوروبا ... لأن ديونها على الدول الأوروبية المهددة بالإفلاس قليلة بالنسبة برأس مالها (5%) ...
وخصوصا مع القاعدة التي تم تطبيقها في عام 2009 ... والتي تقيم الأصول بقيمتها الإسمية وليس الحالية ...
- كما أن البنوك الأمريكية لم تتأثر كثيرا لإفلاس معظم دول أمريكا اللاتينية في بداية الثمانينات ... وكانت نسبة ديونها هناك لرأس مالها عالية جدا ...
(في تلك الفترة، إشترى الوليد بن طلال في بنك سيتي جروب ... وضربت معه ولو أنها ربا) !!!
- ديون البنوك الأمركية على أوروبا لن تتغير قيمتها ... حتى لو إنخفضت قيمتها السوقية ... ولن تؤثر على "الأرباح الورقية" لتلك البنوك !!!
وهذا بسبب القاعدة التي تم تطبيقها في عام 2009 ... والتي تقيم الأصول بقيمتها الإسمية ... مهما إنخفضت القيمة السوقية للديون الأوروبية !!!
- يتوقع أن ينمو الناتج المحلي الأمريكي للربع القادم ... وذلك النمو للربع التاسع على التوالي ...
- تخفيض الوظائف لن يمنع سوق الأسهم من الإرتفاع (وهذا كان موضوع نقاش في موضوع سابق في المنتدى) ...
وهو ما يسمونه الإرتداد بدون وظائف (Jobless recovery) ...
- وأخيرا ... هبوط مبيعات المنازل الجديدة قابله إرتفاع مبيعات المنازل القديمة وبنسبة 30% ...
ما يعني أن مشكلة المنازل المصادرة بسبب العجز عن السداد يتم تصريفها ... وفي طريقها الى الحل ...
*****
أما على مستوى الشركات التي ينصح بالإستثمار فيها ...
فيعطي خمس شركات يتوقع أنها سوف تنفجر الى الأعلى ...
- شركة أبل للكمبيوتر ... ويتوقع أن يصل سعر سهمها الى 1500 دولار ...
- شركة إكسون موبيل ... ويتوقع لها نموا ضخما بسبب شرائها لشركة حفر تمتلك تقنيات حفر متقدمة ...
ما يسهل إستخراج النفط الذي كان يعتبر صعب الإستخراج ... ويرفع إنتاج النفط في أمريكا الى مستويات كبيرة ...
تجعل مكانة أمريكا في إستخراج النفط في العقد القادم تضاهي مكانة السعودية في العقد السابق !!!
:eek: :confused: :eek:
:confused: :confused:
:eek:
- شركة وولمارت ... والتي تنوي دخول مجال الرعاية الصحية ...
- شركة أمازون.كوم والتي تعمل في المبيعات عن طريق الإنترنت ...
- شركة جوجل ... والتي يرى لها مستقبلا قويا ...
*****المقال بالإنجليزية والرابط ...
- http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-worries-for-a-worrisome-market-2011-09-23
Tune out the fear and panic
Commentary: Seize great stock opportunities now
By James Altucher
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The world is ending. You heard me. Europe is going to default. The U.S. will go into a depression, the dollar will shrink to nothing, Congress and Barack Obama will continue to fight in the Coliseum while us citizens shout and roar from the stands, and stocks will go down forever. To zero maybe.
All of that rioting that is in Libya will spread like a “contagion” to here. And in 13 billion years, the perimeter of the sun will be so wide it will suck us in, a cold dark Earth, a shadow of what it once was.
WSJ's Francesco Guerrera looks at reach and depth of the global stock market selloff, and the deepening negative market sentiment.
Do I worry? Me? Mr. “Dow 20,000?” Of course I do. I get worried that people will believe the lies listed above that are spread every day. The newspapers have to report the worries. That’s a reasonable function; awareness is important. But then you have major responsibilities that most people forget: Analysis and Action. You need to look at the data and decide what is real and what is now. Then take action to make money.
Let’s look at some basic facts:
A) The top eight banks in the United States have almost $1 trillion in capital and only $54 billion in exposure to the weakest Euro zone nations. Let them all default. Doesn’t bother us.
B) In 1981-2, almost all of South America defaulted. The top eight banks then had 263% of their capital exposed to South America, based on accounting rules in place then. Guess what? We had a 20-year boom after that.
C) Is Europe a Lehman? One big difference (other than the obvious one I just mentioned: The banks in 2008 were subject to the brand new mark-to-market rule. Now they don’t have to mark to market. They can make an assumption (”Europe will pay back eventually”) and not have to mark things down as quickly. Guess when the mark to market rule was eliminated? March 2009 — the bottom of the market.
D) We’ve had eight straight quarters of GDP growth. Well, what if next quarter there is no growth? Impossible. Just the return of Japan to some degree of normalcy will guarantee growth.
E) The government is going to cut a lot of jobs. Won’t that reduce GDP? Definitely not. Look at 1945. The government eliminated 10 million (!) jobs when the soldiers returned. I don’t recall the Great Depression of 1945, do you?
F) Housing starts are down while existing home sales are up 18% year over year. You know what that means? Supply is going down while demand is going up. I look forward to housing prices going up over the next year considerably. Particularly with rents up 30% on the past three years in some parts of the country, like New York City.
G) Look at this. (http://siteanalytics.compete.com/fedex.com/)Traffic to fedex.com is my favorite leading indicator. It dipped a little at the market bottom and when Japan reduced manufacturing output by 15%. Now it’s coming back. We’ll see the result of that in this and next quarter’s GDP results. You can run the same chart on ups.com.
That, in a tiny nutshell that I can expand if you want, is the macro view. Let’s look at the micro view:
A) No matter what happens in Greece, or even in the United States, AAPL +0.53% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/AAPL?link=MW_story_quote)with 12x earnings and $80 billion in cash will release another iPhone, another iPad, another Mac, and then repeat all through next year. They are continuing to change computing and regardless of the state of the economy, the lines will be around the corner when they release the next iPad. Despite all of our worries, consumer spending is up 2% year over year. So AAPL is a buy. And I keep my $1,500 price target on it.
B) Exxon Mobil XOM -0.22% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/XOM?link=MW_story_quote)is just beginning a wonderful new phase for the United States and the world. You’ve heard of peak oil theory — the idea that the easy oil has all been drilled and we will run out. It’s a true theory. BUT, the definition of “easy” is changing because of cheaper and cheaper advances in the technology of fracking. XOM bought XTO, the leader in fracking, which can drill 3,000 feet down through solid rock, drill sideways, break up previously hard rocks, and get the oil up. Cheaper than ever. And it will only get cheaper. The U.S. is the new Saudi Arabia over the next 10 years. And XOM is dirt cheap.
C) Wal-Mart Stores WMT +0.70% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/WMT?link=MW_story_quote). Forget that WMT has been the best run company for 40 years straight. WMT is about to do for healthcare what AAPL is doing for computing. Imagine every WMT with a cheap healthcare clinic. They won’t do surgery on you there. But they will treat your colds, your flus, prescribe medicines, get your glasses, etc. Forget ObamaCare. The new cheap healthcare is WalmartCare, where it always should’ve been -- in the private sector.
D) Amazon.com AMZN -0.58% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/AMZN?link=MW_story_quote). I went to a Borders sale the other day; 90% off because of the going out of business sale. Barnes & Noble BKS +4.35% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/BKS?link=MW_story_quote) is next. I already read almost all of my books on a Kindle. And the Kindle tablet, if it has good browsing and videos, will be a viable competitor for AAPL.
E) Google GOOG +0.68% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GOOG?link=MW_story_quote). I’ve argued this one before. It’s just the best company in the world.
All of the above five stocks are priced at very low multiples over earnings. Even if the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -0.04% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DJIA?link=MW_story_quote)(horrors) gets cut in half, the $80 billion in cash that AAPL has provides a great cushion, for instance. I always look at risk versus reward.
Two more macro items:
Zynga and Facebook are going to herald in the return of the IPO. And when they have IPOs they will have currency to acquire other companies, which will fuel VC investments, which will create jobs, etc.
You don’t need full employment for the stock market to go up. They are uncorrelated (as exemplified by consumer spending being at an all time high)
Awareness. Analysis. Action.
Don’t even listen to me. Do your own research. You won’t be as scared as the market suggests. Let the market be afraid while you be smart.
James Altucher is managing director of Formula Capital and the author of six books. He’s written for the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Forbes and many other publications. He’s built and sold two businesses. He does not own individual stocks mentioned in this column.
*****