مارجن
21-12-2009, Mon 3:00 PM
التقرير القديم
الأهلي كابيتال اصدر تقريرا عن شركة “معادن” كبداية لتغطيته لهذه الشركة وكان التقرير متشائما حيال مستقبل انشطة الشركة لذلك فقد قدر السعر العادل للسهم على 10.9 ريال…
هذا في اعتقادي أول تقرير يصدر من جهة أبحاث أو مؤسسة مالية سعودية ففي السابق تم نشر تغطية للشركة ولكن من مؤسسات أجنبية كان أهما التقريرين الصادرين من كريديت سويس في سبتمبر و نوفمبر 2008 وتم تقدير السعر العادل على 36.6 ريال..
يقول تقرير الأهلي كابيتال أن مناجم الذهب الخمسة التابعة للشركة سيتم اقفالها على التوالي في الفترة من 2010 إلى 2014 بسبب نضوب المعدن الأصفر من هذه المناجم…
وفيما يخص مشروع الفوسفات (شراكة مع سابك) وهو تحت الانشاء حاليا فيتوقع التقرير أن تكون عوائده محدودة بالنسبة لتكاليف المشروع (17 مليار ريال) ويتوقع التقرير أن يبدأ انتاج هذا المشروع في النصف الثاني 2011 أي بعد سنتين من الان…
وبالنسبة لمشروع الألمونيوم فإن التقرير يطرح علامة استفهام حول جدوى المشروع بعد انسحاب الشريك الأجنبي وصعوبة الحصول على تمويل…
التقرير يتوقع تحقيق الشركة أرباحا متواضعة تتراوح بين 244 مليون في عام 2009 ثم تنخفض الى 71 مليون في عام 2010 ومن ثم تعاود الارتفاع الى 121 مليون ريال في عام 2011 قبل أن تقفز الارباح إلى حوالي 1000 مليون ريال في عامي 2012 و 2013 بعد تدشين مشروع الفوسفات..
التقرير الجديد
MINING | 21 December 2009 FLASH NOTE
Maaden
Aluminum project announcement
Maaden announced on December 20, 2009 an agreement with Alcoa to
build a SR40.5bn (USD10.8bn) aluminum project. The project will be
60% owned by Maaden and 40% owned by Alcoa. We expect the stock
to react positively to this announcement as adjustments from the
original plans for this project will likely be value accretive to Maaden.
•
Two stage build-out process planned. Stage 1, expected to come on
stream in 2013, consists of an aluminum smelter with capacity of 740
thousand tons/year and an aluminum rolling mill with an initial capacity
between 250-450 thousand tons/year. Stage 2, expected to come on stream
a year after stage 1, consists of a Bauxite mine with annual capacity of 4mn
tons and an alumina refinery with an annual capacity of 1.8mn tons.
•
Changes from original project plan should add value. Maaden’s original
plan for this project, included in their IPO prospectus, indicated that it could
have a negative NPV. However, we believe key adjustments will significantly
improve the value generation prospects, including: 1) The addition of a new
downstream rolling mill plant, 2) the government will be setting up the
electricity generation plant, rather than Maaden building it out itself, and 3)
pricing on aluminum has improved from the USD1,888 per ton in the
previous feasibility study to USD2,238 per ton now, and a 2013 forward price
of USD2,509 per ton (ie. 33% higher than the original pricing).
•
However, project financing remains a key concern. Financing such a
large project looks to be one of the main hurdles the company will face. We
believe Maaden will be able to use SR10bn of its current SR12.9bn cash
balance as its equity injection into the project. Alcoa would thus be
responsible for SR6.6bn (60:40 split). However, raising the remaining
SR23.8bn (USD6.3bn) debt from the public markets, especially after the
recent events in Dubai, could prove difficult. Potential solutions to this
include direct government support through low cost loans, or explicit
government guarantees on any debt raised, which would lower the costs.
•
Maaden’s leverage profile to rise significantly. We believe Maaden’s
consolidated debt to equity will rise significantly, which will remain a longerterm
concern. Our initial analysis indicates the debt to equity ratio could rise
to 170% by 2012e, which we believe is high, especially when compared to a
company such as Saudi Electricity, which is also undergoing an extensive
build-out program but which has steadier cash flows, and which we believe
will peak at about 100% debt to equity in the medium-term.
•
Expecting a positive market reaction. Despite the continued
uncertainties, we believe the stock will react positively to this news. We will
be providing an update on our estimates and valuation, including the
addition of the aluminum project shortly.
21 December 2009 Saudi Arabian Mining Co (Maaden)
– FLASH NOTE
Kindly send all mailing list requests to research@ncbc.com
Brokerage sales Roger Yeoman +966 2 690 7851 r.yeoman@ncbc.com
+966 565 076 302 (mobile)
Brokerage website www.alahlitadawul.com (http://www.alahlitadawul.com) / www.alahlibrokerage.com (http://www.alahlibrokerage.com)
Corporate website www.ncbc.com (http://www.ncbc.com)
NCBC INVESTMENT RATINGS
Overweight: Target price represents expected returns in excess of 15% in the next 12 months
Neutral: Target price represents expected returns between -10% and +15% in the next 12 months
Underweight: Target price represents a fall in share price exceeding 10% in the next 12 months
Price Target: Analysts set share price targets for individual companies based on a 12 month horizon. These share price
targets are subject to a range of company specific and market risks. Target prices are based on a methodology
chosen by the analyst as the best predictor of the share price over the 12 month horizon
OTHER DEFINITIONS
NR: Not Rated. The investment rating has been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with
applicable regulations and/or in circumstances when NCB Capital is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or
strategic transaction involving the company and in certain other situations
CS: Coverage Suspended. NCBC has suspended coverage of this company
NC: Not Covered. NCBC does not cover this company
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
The authors of this document hereby certify that the views expressed in this document accurately reflect their personal views regarding the
securities and companies that are the subject of this document. The authors also certify that neither they nor their respective spouses or
dependants (if relevant) hold a beneficial interest in the securities that are the subject of this document. Funds managed by NCB Capital and
its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. NCB Capital or its subsidiaries may own
securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, or funds or in funds managed by third parties The authors of this document may
own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which
they have no discretion. The Investment Banking division of NCB Capital may be in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning
mandates for companies that are either the subject of this document or are mentioned in this document.
This document is issued to the person to whom NCB Capital has issued it. This document is intended for general information purposes only,
and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This document is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the
purchase or sale of any security. This document is not intended to take into account any investment suitability needs of the recipient. In
particular, this document is not customized to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk appetite or other needs of any
person who may receive this document. NCB Capital strongly advises every potential investor to seek professional legal, accounting and
financial guidance when determining whether an investment in a security is appropriate to his or her needs. Any investment
recommendations contained in this document take into account both risk and expected return. Information and opinions contained in this
document have been compiled or arrived at by NCB Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but NCB Capital has not independently
verified the contents of this document and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information
and opinions contained in this document. To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and regulation, NCB Capital shall not be liable
for any loss that may arise from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Any financial
projections, fair value estimates and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. All opinions and
estimates included in this document constitute NCB Capital’s judgment as of the date of production of this document, and are subject to
change without notice. Past performance of any investment is not indicative of future results. The value of securities, the income from them,
the prices and currencies of securities, can go down as well as up. An investor may get back less than he or she originally invested.
Additionally, fees may apply on investments in securities. Changes in currency rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or
income of a security. No part of this document may be reproduced without the written permission of NCB Capital. Neither this document nor
any copy hereof may be distributed in any jurisdiction outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia where its distribution may be restricted by law.
Persons who receive this document should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this document, the
recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
NCB Capital is authorised by the Capital Market Authority of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to carry out dealing, as principal and agent, and
underwriting, managing, arranging, advising and custody, with respect to securities under licence number 37-06046. NCB Capital’s
registered office is at 25th Floor, Al-Faisaliyah Tower, King Fahad Road, P.O. Box 22216, Riyadh 11495, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
الأهلي كابيتال اصدر تقريرا عن شركة “معادن” كبداية لتغطيته لهذه الشركة وكان التقرير متشائما حيال مستقبل انشطة الشركة لذلك فقد قدر السعر العادل للسهم على 10.9 ريال…
هذا في اعتقادي أول تقرير يصدر من جهة أبحاث أو مؤسسة مالية سعودية ففي السابق تم نشر تغطية للشركة ولكن من مؤسسات أجنبية كان أهما التقريرين الصادرين من كريديت سويس في سبتمبر و نوفمبر 2008 وتم تقدير السعر العادل على 36.6 ريال..
يقول تقرير الأهلي كابيتال أن مناجم الذهب الخمسة التابعة للشركة سيتم اقفالها على التوالي في الفترة من 2010 إلى 2014 بسبب نضوب المعدن الأصفر من هذه المناجم…
وفيما يخص مشروع الفوسفات (شراكة مع سابك) وهو تحت الانشاء حاليا فيتوقع التقرير أن تكون عوائده محدودة بالنسبة لتكاليف المشروع (17 مليار ريال) ويتوقع التقرير أن يبدأ انتاج هذا المشروع في النصف الثاني 2011 أي بعد سنتين من الان…
وبالنسبة لمشروع الألمونيوم فإن التقرير يطرح علامة استفهام حول جدوى المشروع بعد انسحاب الشريك الأجنبي وصعوبة الحصول على تمويل…
التقرير يتوقع تحقيق الشركة أرباحا متواضعة تتراوح بين 244 مليون في عام 2009 ثم تنخفض الى 71 مليون في عام 2010 ومن ثم تعاود الارتفاع الى 121 مليون ريال في عام 2011 قبل أن تقفز الارباح إلى حوالي 1000 مليون ريال في عامي 2012 و 2013 بعد تدشين مشروع الفوسفات..
التقرير الجديد
MINING | 21 December 2009 FLASH NOTE
Maaden
Aluminum project announcement
Maaden announced on December 20, 2009 an agreement with Alcoa to
build a SR40.5bn (USD10.8bn) aluminum project. The project will be
60% owned by Maaden and 40% owned by Alcoa. We expect the stock
to react positively to this announcement as adjustments from the
original plans for this project will likely be value accretive to Maaden.
•
Two stage build-out process planned. Stage 1, expected to come on
stream in 2013, consists of an aluminum smelter with capacity of 740
thousand tons/year and an aluminum rolling mill with an initial capacity
between 250-450 thousand tons/year. Stage 2, expected to come on stream
a year after stage 1, consists of a Bauxite mine with annual capacity of 4mn
tons and an alumina refinery with an annual capacity of 1.8mn tons.
•
Changes from original project plan should add value. Maaden’s original
plan for this project, included in their IPO prospectus, indicated that it could
have a negative NPV. However, we believe key adjustments will significantly
improve the value generation prospects, including: 1) The addition of a new
downstream rolling mill plant, 2) the government will be setting up the
electricity generation plant, rather than Maaden building it out itself, and 3)
pricing on aluminum has improved from the USD1,888 per ton in the
previous feasibility study to USD2,238 per ton now, and a 2013 forward price
of USD2,509 per ton (ie. 33% higher than the original pricing).
•
However, project financing remains a key concern. Financing such a
large project looks to be one of the main hurdles the company will face. We
believe Maaden will be able to use SR10bn of its current SR12.9bn cash
balance as its equity injection into the project. Alcoa would thus be
responsible for SR6.6bn (60:40 split). However, raising the remaining
SR23.8bn (USD6.3bn) debt from the public markets, especially after the
recent events in Dubai, could prove difficult. Potential solutions to this
include direct government support through low cost loans, or explicit
government guarantees on any debt raised, which would lower the costs.
•
Maaden’s leverage profile to rise significantly. We believe Maaden’s
consolidated debt to equity will rise significantly, which will remain a longerterm
concern. Our initial analysis indicates the debt to equity ratio could rise
to 170% by 2012e, which we believe is high, especially when compared to a
company such as Saudi Electricity, which is also undergoing an extensive
build-out program but which has steadier cash flows, and which we believe
will peak at about 100% debt to equity in the medium-term.
•
Expecting a positive market reaction. Despite the continued
uncertainties, we believe the stock will react positively to this news. We will
be providing an update on our estimates and valuation, including the
addition of the aluminum project shortly.
21 December 2009 Saudi Arabian Mining Co (Maaden)
– FLASH NOTE
Kindly send all mailing list requests to research@ncbc.com
Brokerage sales Roger Yeoman +966 2 690 7851 r.yeoman@ncbc.com
+966 565 076 302 (mobile)
Brokerage website www.alahlitadawul.com (http://www.alahlitadawul.com) / www.alahlibrokerage.com (http://www.alahlibrokerage.com)
Corporate website www.ncbc.com (http://www.ncbc.com)
NCBC INVESTMENT RATINGS
Overweight: Target price represents expected returns in excess of 15% in the next 12 months
Neutral: Target price represents expected returns between -10% and +15% in the next 12 months
Underweight: Target price represents a fall in share price exceeding 10% in the next 12 months
Price Target: Analysts set share price targets for individual companies based on a 12 month horizon. These share price
targets are subject to a range of company specific and market risks. Target prices are based on a methodology
chosen by the analyst as the best predictor of the share price over the 12 month horizon
OTHER DEFINITIONS
NR: Not Rated. The investment rating has been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with
applicable regulations and/or in circumstances when NCB Capital is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or
strategic transaction involving the company and in certain other situations
CS: Coverage Suspended. NCBC has suspended coverage of this company
NC: Not Covered. NCBC does not cover this company
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
The authors of this document hereby certify that the views expressed in this document accurately reflect their personal views regarding the
securities and companies that are the subject of this document. The authors also certify that neither they nor their respective spouses or
dependants (if relevant) hold a beneficial interest in the securities that are the subject of this document. Funds managed by NCB Capital and
its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. NCB Capital or its subsidiaries may own
securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, or funds or in funds managed by third parties The authors of this document may
own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which
they have no discretion. The Investment Banking division of NCB Capital may be in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning
mandates for companies that are either the subject of this document or are mentioned in this document.
This document is issued to the person to whom NCB Capital has issued it. This document is intended for general information purposes only,
and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This document is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the
purchase or sale of any security. This document is not intended to take into account any investment suitability needs of the recipient. In
particular, this document is not customized to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk appetite or other needs of any
person who may receive this document. NCB Capital strongly advises every potential investor to seek professional legal, accounting and
financial guidance when determining whether an investment in a security is appropriate to his or her needs. Any investment
recommendations contained in this document take into account both risk and expected return. Information and opinions contained in this
document have been compiled or arrived at by NCB Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but NCB Capital has not independently
verified the contents of this document and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information
and opinions contained in this document. To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law and regulation, NCB Capital shall not be liable
for any loss that may arise from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Any financial
projections, fair value estimates and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. All opinions and
estimates included in this document constitute NCB Capital’s judgment as of the date of production of this document, and are subject to
change without notice. Past performance of any investment is not indicative of future results. The value of securities, the income from them,
the prices and currencies of securities, can go down as well as up. An investor may get back less than he or she originally invested.
Additionally, fees may apply on investments in securities. Changes in currency rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or
income of a security. No part of this document may be reproduced without the written permission of NCB Capital. Neither this document nor
any copy hereof may be distributed in any jurisdiction outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia where its distribution may be restricted by law.
Persons who receive this document should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this document, the
recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
NCB Capital is authorised by the Capital Market Authority of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to carry out dealing, as principal and agent, and
underwriting, managing, arranging, advising and custody, with respect to securities under licence number 37-06046. NCB Capital’s
registered office is at 25th Floor, Al-Faisaliyah Tower, King Fahad Road, P.O. Box 22216, Riyadh 11495, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.