stormygold
19-12-2006, Tue 7:53 PM
السلام عليكم
الكلام المدرج أدناه مجرد ملاحظة شخصية
لشخص يتابع الأسواق العالمية يوميا
و ما حصل اليوم و أمس في السوق السعودي
لم يكن شاذا عما حصل عالميا
يبدو أن خبر تايلاند اليوم أثر على السوق السعودي
كما أثر على كافة الأسواق الناشئة
رأس المال جبان و لا يحبذ مثل تلك القرارات
وفي ظل تشابك البورصات و أسواق المال العالمية
فالحركة تكون سريعة و مفاجئة و شاملة
بعد 6 أيام إرتفاع متتالي كان من المتوقع حصول حركة تصحيحية على السوق
لكن ما حصل اليوم أثبت ان السوق السعودي دخل في
الشبكة العالمية لأسواق المال و أصبح حساسا و يتأثر بحركة
السيولة العالمية التي تخاف من الأسواق الناشئة لأنها عالية
المخاطرة و عند أول قرار يحد من حرية حركة رؤوس الأموال
تكون الإجابة سريعة و عنيفة و تمتد لباقي الأسواق الناشئة
الحقيقة تراجع سابك كان متوقعا كتصحيح
لكن حدته كانت مفاجئة و من الواضح أن هناك
بيع "نفسي" على السهم
قد يكون بعض المستثمرين تخلو عن جزء
من مواقعهم الإستثمارية كردة فعل الخائف و المتردد
مما يسمعه و يراه من باقي الأسواق المماثلة
عموما ... أعلنت الحكومة التايلندية تراجعها عن
قرارها و لذا لننتظر ماذا يحدث
و الله أعلم
إليكم هذا التقرير عن حركة الأسواق الناشئة اليوم
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Emerging-Market Stocks Slump on Thailand's Investment Controls
Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks headed for the biggest drop in three months after Thailand imposed then rescinded currency controls on international investors, highlighting the risks of investing in developing economies.
The SET Index, Thailand's benchmark, plunged 15 percent, the biggest slide in 16 years. Stock indexes in Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland and Turkey all lost more than 1 percent. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Markets Index, which tracks 25 developing markets, fell 1.8 percent from a record to 878.96 at 9:45 a.m. in New York.
``The Thai news shook people up,'' said Eric Green, who helps manage $4.2 billion at Penn Capital Management in Cherry Hill, New Jersey. ``The concern is that things like this happen to emerging markets without warning.''
The emerging markets index, which is headed for the sharpest decline since Sept. 11, had a bigger drop in May and June, losing a quarter of its value on concern that rising global rates would crimp demand for commodities. It has more than recouped the loss as the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates commodities prices rebounded. Benchmarks in Russia, Brazil, China, Mexico and Indonesia all climbed to records this month.
``The market will rebound tomorrow,'' said Anne West, who manages 10 billion pounds at Cazenove Fund Management Ltd. in London. ``There's been a history of capital controls in all emerging markets, and that's part of the higher risk. You just have to make sure you get a better reward.''
The MSCI Emerging Markets index has gained 25 percent this year, almost double the gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
Order Rescinded
Following the drop in Thai stocks today, the country's government agreed to lift the requirement, Patareeya Benjapolchai, head of the stock market, said.
PTT Pcl, Thailand's largest company by market value, and Bangkok Bank Pcl, the biggest lender, plunged. PT Perusahaan Negara paced a decline in Indonesia, while OTP Bank Nyrt. dropped in Hungary.
China's PetroChina Co. and OAO Lukoil in Russia declined after crude posted its biggest slump in almost a month yesterday. Iron ore miner Cia. Vale do Rio Doce led a decline in Brazil's Bovespa index.
The average spread on emerging-market bonds today was unchanged at 177 basis points, or 1.77 percentage points, more than U.S. Treasury notes, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co's EMBI+ index.
Thailand's SET Index fell as much as 19.5 percent as all but eight of the 458 stocks included in the measure dropped. Thailand was the country that touched off an emerging-market slump in 1997- 98 by devaluing its currency, the baht.
Trial Balloon
``Thailand has a history of floating trial balloons and adjusting, subsequently, if they see the market reaction was worse than originally forecasted,'' said Christopher Palmer, who oversees $3.5 billion as head of global emerging- market equities at Gartmore in London. ``Now they know their limitations.''
In 1997, Thailand was trying to stop the currency from weakening, said Richard Yetsenga, currency strategist as HSBC Holdings in Hong Kong.
``This time, of course, the authorities are trying to stop the currency strengthening,'' Yetsenga said. ``In many ways this time it's been too much of good thing, not too much of a bad thing. So I wouldn't even think we're anywhere close to what we saw in '97.''
The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, lost 2.5 percent and the Jakarta Composite Index slumped 2.5 percent.
Central Europe
Central European stocks dropped for the first time in seven days, led by PKN Orlen SA, Poland's biggest oil company. The NTX Index of 30 companies in the region was down 1.8 percent at 1,781.87. Poland's WIG20 Index lost 2.6 percent, while Hungary's BUX Index slipped 1.5 percent and the Czech PX Index fell 2.2 percent.
Thai Central Bank Governor Tarisa Watanagase told reporters yesterday that investors based abroad would be able to invest just 70 percent of funds transferred to Thailand, and only recoup all of their funds if they kept the money in the country for more than a year. The rule said any withdrawals within a year would be penalized 10 percent of the original investment.
PTT and Bangkok Bank both tumbled more than 16 percent. PT Perusahaan Negara, Indonesia's largest gas distributor, lost 3.8 percent. OTP Bank, a Hungarian lender that's been expanding in eastern Europe since 2002, fell 2.7 percent.
Trading Halt
The SET's slump today prompted the Stock Exchange of Thailand to halt trading for 30 minutes, an automatic suspension triggered by a drop of 10 percent or more in the benchmark. The gauge was set for its biggest decline since August 1990.
Asian stocks and currencies gained this year as growth in the region's emerging markets drew funds from overseas investors. Funds investing in shares of developing countries attracted $1.65 billion more than they lost from redemptions in the week ended Dec. 13, figures from Emerging Portfolio Fund Research showed. The net fund inflow was the most since the weekly period ended May 10, when they drew $2.86 billion.
Overseas investors today sold 25.1 billion baht ($699 million) more of Thai stocks than they bought after the central bank introduced the baht lockup requirements, according to data from the Stock Exchange of Thailand.
Central banks in Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia said today they wouldn't implement capital restrictions to control their currencies.
``I don't think any country wants to see their stock market down 20 percent mid-day,'' Palmer said.
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الكلام المدرج أدناه مجرد ملاحظة شخصية
لشخص يتابع الأسواق العالمية يوميا
و ما حصل اليوم و أمس في السوق السعودي
لم يكن شاذا عما حصل عالميا
يبدو أن خبر تايلاند اليوم أثر على السوق السعودي
كما أثر على كافة الأسواق الناشئة
رأس المال جبان و لا يحبذ مثل تلك القرارات
وفي ظل تشابك البورصات و أسواق المال العالمية
فالحركة تكون سريعة و مفاجئة و شاملة
بعد 6 أيام إرتفاع متتالي كان من المتوقع حصول حركة تصحيحية على السوق
لكن ما حصل اليوم أثبت ان السوق السعودي دخل في
الشبكة العالمية لأسواق المال و أصبح حساسا و يتأثر بحركة
السيولة العالمية التي تخاف من الأسواق الناشئة لأنها عالية
المخاطرة و عند أول قرار يحد من حرية حركة رؤوس الأموال
تكون الإجابة سريعة و عنيفة و تمتد لباقي الأسواق الناشئة
الحقيقة تراجع سابك كان متوقعا كتصحيح
لكن حدته كانت مفاجئة و من الواضح أن هناك
بيع "نفسي" على السهم
قد يكون بعض المستثمرين تخلو عن جزء
من مواقعهم الإستثمارية كردة فعل الخائف و المتردد
مما يسمعه و يراه من باقي الأسواق المماثلة
عموما ... أعلنت الحكومة التايلندية تراجعها عن
قرارها و لذا لننتظر ماذا يحدث
و الله أعلم
إليكم هذا التقرير عن حركة الأسواق الناشئة اليوم
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Emerging-Market Stocks Slump on Thailand's Investment Controls
Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks headed for the biggest drop in three months after Thailand imposed then rescinded currency controls on international investors, highlighting the risks of investing in developing economies.
The SET Index, Thailand's benchmark, plunged 15 percent, the biggest slide in 16 years. Stock indexes in Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland and Turkey all lost more than 1 percent. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Markets Index, which tracks 25 developing markets, fell 1.8 percent from a record to 878.96 at 9:45 a.m. in New York.
``The Thai news shook people up,'' said Eric Green, who helps manage $4.2 billion at Penn Capital Management in Cherry Hill, New Jersey. ``The concern is that things like this happen to emerging markets without warning.''
The emerging markets index, which is headed for the sharpest decline since Sept. 11, had a bigger drop in May and June, losing a quarter of its value on concern that rising global rates would crimp demand for commodities. It has more than recouped the loss as the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates commodities prices rebounded. Benchmarks in Russia, Brazil, China, Mexico and Indonesia all climbed to records this month.
``The market will rebound tomorrow,'' said Anne West, who manages 10 billion pounds at Cazenove Fund Management Ltd. in London. ``There's been a history of capital controls in all emerging markets, and that's part of the higher risk. You just have to make sure you get a better reward.''
The MSCI Emerging Markets index has gained 25 percent this year, almost double the gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
Order Rescinded
Following the drop in Thai stocks today, the country's government agreed to lift the requirement, Patareeya Benjapolchai, head of the stock market, said.
PTT Pcl, Thailand's largest company by market value, and Bangkok Bank Pcl, the biggest lender, plunged. PT Perusahaan Negara paced a decline in Indonesia, while OTP Bank Nyrt. dropped in Hungary.
China's PetroChina Co. and OAO Lukoil in Russia declined after crude posted its biggest slump in almost a month yesterday. Iron ore miner Cia. Vale do Rio Doce led a decline in Brazil's Bovespa index.
The average spread on emerging-market bonds today was unchanged at 177 basis points, or 1.77 percentage points, more than U.S. Treasury notes, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co's EMBI+ index.
Thailand's SET Index fell as much as 19.5 percent as all but eight of the 458 stocks included in the measure dropped. Thailand was the country that touched off an emerging-market slump in 1997- 98 by devaluing its currency, the baht.
Trial Balloon
``Thailand has a history of floating trial balloons and adjusting, subsequently, if they see the market reaction was worse than originally forecasted,'' said Christopher Palmer, who oversees $3.5 billion as head of global emerging- market equities at Gartmore in London. ``Now they know their limitations.''
In 1997, Thailand was trying to stop the currency from weakening, said Richard Yetsenga, currency strategist as HSBC Holdings in Hong Kong.
``This time, of course, the authorities are trying to stop the currency strengthening,'' Yetsenga said. ``In many ways this time it's been too much of good thing, not too much of a bad thing. So I wouldn't even think we're anywhere close to what we saw in '97.''
The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, lost 2.5 percent and the Jakarta Composite Index slumped 2.5 percent.
Central Europe
Central European stocks dropped for the first time in seven days, led by PKN Orlen SA, Poland's biggest oil company. The NTX Index of 30 companies in the region was down 1.8 percent at 1,781.87. Poland's WIG20 Index lost 2.6 percent, while Hungary's BUX Index slipped 1.5 percent and the Czech PX Index fell 2.2 percent.
Thai Central Bank Governor Tarisa Watanagase told reporters yesterday that investors based abroad would be able to invest just 70 percent of funds transferred to Thailand, and only recoup all of their funds if they kept the money in the country for more than a year. The rule said any withdrawals within a year would be penalized 10 percent of the original investment.
PTT and Bangkok Bank both tumbled more than 16 percent. PT Perusahaan Negara, Indonesia's largest gas distributor, lost 3.8 percent. OTP Bank, a Hungarian lender that's been expanding in eastern Europe since 2002, fell 2.7 percent.
Trading Halt
The SET's slump today prompted the Stock Exchange of Thailand to halt trading for 30 minutes, an automatic suspension triggered by a drop of 10 percent or more in the benchmark. The gauge was set for its biggest decline since August 1990.
Asian stocks and currencies gained this year as growth in the region's emerging markets drew funds from overseas investors. Funds investing in shares of developing countries attracted $1.65 billion more than they lost from redemptions in the week ended Dec. 13, figures from Emerging Portfolio Fund Research showed. The net fund inflow was the most since the weekly period ended May 10, when they drew $2.86 billion.
Overseas investors today sold 25.1 billion baht ($699 million) more of Thai stocks than they bought after the central bank introduced the baht lockup requirements, according to data from the Stock Exchange of Thailand.
Central banks in Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia said today they wouldn't implement capital restrictions to control their currencies.
``I don't think any country wants to see their stock market down 20 percent mid-day,'' Palmer said.
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