مجد نجد
03-12-2006, Sun 5:04 AM
كما وصلني As received
بشرى سارة لمتداولي الأسهم
تنبأ هذا الخبير الاقتصادي بانهيار الأسواق المالية في الخليج وخاصة السوق السعودي في فبراير من هذا العام وقام بنصح المستثمرين الأجانب بالانسحاب من أسواق الخليج قبل انفجار الفقاعة ؟؟
نفس الخبير الاقتصادي قام بدراسة أسواق الخليج وخاصة السوق السعودي وهو الآن يوصي المستثمرين باستغلال الفرصة الذهبية والاستثمار في أسواقنا لأن الأسعار بلغت أدنى مستوى ممكن أن تصله وأصبح مغريا للاستثمار.
وذكر في التقرير أيضا بأن عام 2007 سيكون العام الذهبي للأسهم الخليجية عامة والسوق السعودي خاصة وأن أسواق الخليج ستصبح المستقطب الأول للاستثمارات العالمية دون غيرها.
لا تستغربوا لو وجدنا إعمار ب 500 ريال العام القادم ونبدأ بعض أصابع الندم حينما رأيناها أمامنا على الشاشة بسعر 19 ريال ولم نعرها أي اهتمام ؟؟ ولنا في الزراعيات والكثير من الأسهم التي تضاعفت في الطفرة الماضية عبره ، والله ولي التوفيق
أتترككم مع التقرير وهو باللغة الانجليزية :
http://rosemanblog.sovereignsociety.com/2006/11/the_last_bear_m.html
Roseman's Eruptions
Uncensored Rants About Unbelievable Values
« Canada's Real Estate Dilemma | Main | Closed-end Funds Signal Low Value Environment »
November 22, 2006
The Last Bear Market Now
Over the last several weeks I've been writing about the dearth of contrarian stock-market values in the world today. Almost daily, world markets are hitting new all-time or six-year highs since September. In fact, most European and U.S. large-cap benchmarks now trade at their highest levels since the second year of the 2000-2002 bear-market. But only one region in the world has not participated, still languihsing from the blows inflicted by the bear-market last February: The Gulf states.
According to Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), the Gulf markets of Dubai, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Oman are down by almost 50% since peaking earlier in February. And over the last four weeks alone, several Gulf bourses have resumed their downward spiral, including a 15% plunge in the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia's market has nosedived since peaking in February, down a dizzy 64%.
Normally, meltdowns like this would definitely draw portfolio flows from distressed-based investors like myself. The Gulf markets, in percentage terms, certainly trade at similar levels to markets in Latin America following the Mexican peso devaluation in December 1994 or the Asian economic crisis of 1997-1998. The time to start buying would be right now after huge double-digit declines.
I think we're almost at the point of maximum pessimism in the Gulf. The main problem I have with this region is the lack of trading volume. In smaller markets like Bahrain and Oman, trading volumes are now below $10 million dollars a day -- terribly illiquid. Basically, if you buy stocks in the Gulf now, you'd better be planted there for a long time because liquidity is poor.
On the plus side, the region does harbor strong economic performance. Trade balances are mostly in surplus territory at a combined $200 billion dollars, or nearly 30% of the region's GDP. Plus, in October, Moody's upgraded the sovereign bond ratings of the six Gulf states. Excluding Saudi Arabian equities, valuations in the region now trade at a very respectable 13 times trailing earnings, below the emerging markets average and about 40% less than major markets, including the S&P 500 Index and the Dow.
If you want to play in the Gulf, I suggest a specialized offshore mutual fund dedicated to a basket of these markets. In 2007, I'll be plugging the world's best-performing regional fund in the Gulf in my Global Mutual Fund Investor (GMFI) .
I'll be off tomorrow for the holidays but back again on Monday, November 27.
A Happy Thanksgiving to my American readers. Have a great long weekend.
Posted at 11:27 PM | Permalink
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About
Further Resources
Sovereign Society's Offshore A-Letter
Free, daily newsletter commenting on the state of the offshore world.
Sovereign Society Membership
Commodity Trend Alert
Investment Service written by Eric Roseman.
Global Mutual Fund Investor
Investment Service written by Eric Roseman.
Introduction to the offshore world.
Recent Posts
U.S. Bond-Market Holds the Key
Airports Mania
Mr. Annuity Visits Montreal
Dollar Decline Part II
Closed-end Funds Signal Low Value Environment
The Last Bear Market Now
Canada's Real Estate Dilemma
Investment Trusts Heaven
The Highest-Yielding European Market
Cash Increasingly Looks Good in Overheated Market
Archives
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
بشرى سارة لمتداولي الأسهم
تنبأ هذا الخبير الاقتصادي بانهيار الأسواق المالية في الخليج وخاصة السوق السعودي في فبراير من هذا العام وقام بنصح المستثمرين الأجانب بالانسحاب من أسواق الخليج قبل انفجار الفقاعة ؟؟
نفس الخبير الاقتصادي قام بدراسة أسواق الخليج وخاصة السوق السعودي وهو الآن يوصي المستثمرين باستغلال الفرصة الذهبية والاستثمار في أسواقنا لأن الأسعار بلغت أدنى مستوى ممكن أن تصله وأصبح مغريا للاستثمار.
وذكر في التقرير أيضا بأن عام 2007 سيكون العام الذهبي للأسهم الخليجية عامة والسوق السعودي خاصة وأن أسواق الخليج ستصبح المستقطب الأول للاستثمارات العالمية دون غيرها.
لا تستغربوا لو وجدنا إعمار ب 500 ريال العام القادم ونبدأ بعض أصابع الندم حينما رأيناها أمامنا على الشاشة بسعر 19 ريال ولم نعرها أي اهتمام ؟؟ ولنا في الزراعيات والكثير من الأسهم التي تضاعفت في الطفرة الماضية عبره ، والله ولي التوفيق
أتترككم مع التقرير وهو باللغة الانجليزية :
http://rosemanblog.sovereignsociety.com/2006/11/the_last_bear_m.html
Roseman's Eruptions
Uncensored Rants About Unbelievable Values
« Canada's Real Estate Dilemma | Main | Closed-end Funds Signal Low Value Environment »
November 22, 2006
The Last Bear Market Now
Over the last several weeks I've been writing about the dearth of contrarian stock-market values in the world today. Almost daily, world markets are hitting new all-time or six-year highs since September. In fact, most European and U.S. large-cap benchmarks now trade at their highest levels since the second year of the 2000-2002 bear-market. But only one region in the world has not participated, still languihsing from the blows inflicted by the bear-market last February: The Gulf states.
According to Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), the Gulf markets of Dubai, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Oman are down by almost 50% since peaking earlier in February. And over the last four weeks alone, several Gulf bourses have resumed their downward spiral, including a 15% plunge in the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia's market has nosedived since peaking in February, down a dizzy 64%.
Normally, meltdowns like this would definitely draw portfolio flows from distressed-based investors like myself. The Gulf markets, in percentage terms, certainly trade at similar levels to markets in Latin America following the Mexican peso devaluation in December 1994 or the Asian economic crisis of 1997-1998. The time to start buying would be right now after huge double-digit declines.
I think we're almost at the point of maximum pessimism in the Gulf. The main problem I have with this region is the lack of trading volume. In smaller markets like Bahrain and Oman, trading volumes are now below $10 million dollars a day -- terribly illiquid. Basically, if you buy stocks in the Gulf now, you'd better be planted there for a long time because liquidity is poor.
On the plus side, the region does harbor strong economic performance. Trade balances are mostly in surplus territory at a combined $200 billion dollars, or nearly 30% of the region's GDP. Plus, in October, Moody's upgraded the sovereign bond ratings of the six Gulf states. Excluding Saudi Arabian equities, valuations in the region now trade at a very respectable 13 times trailing earnings, below the emerging markets average and about 40% less than major markets, including the S&P 500 Index and the Dow.
If you want to play in the Gulf, I suggest a specialized offshore mutual fund dedicated to a basket of these markets. In 2007, I'll be plugging the world's best-performing regional fund in the Gulf in my Global Mutual Fund Investor (GMFI) .
I'll be off tomorrow for the holidays but back again on Monday, November 27.
A Happy Thanksgiving to my American readers. Have a great long weekend.
Posted at 11:27 PM | Permalink
TrackBack
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/t/trackback/6918877
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference The Last Bear Market Now:
About
Further Resources
Sovereign Society's Offshore A-Letter
Free, daily newsletter commenting on the state of the offshore world.
Sovereign Society Membership
Commodity Trend Alert
Investment Service written by Eric Roseman.
Global Mutual Fund Investor
Investment Service written by Eric Roseman.
Introduction to the offshore world.
Recent Posts
U.S. Bond-Market Holds the Key
Airports Mania
Mr. Annuity Visits Montreal
Dollar Decline Part II
Closed-end Funds Signal Low Value Environment
The Last Bear Market Now
Canada's Real Estate Dilemma
Investment Trusts Heaven
The Highest-Yielding European Market
Cash Increasingly Looks Good in Overheated Market
Archives
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006